Is NATO conducting operations against Russia in August? First, hundreds of planes will launch a strike

Recall a few days ago when Serbian President Vučić stated, “This train can no longer be stopped,” suggesting that NATO is gearing up for conflict with Russia and has no intention of halting. He predicted a “peacetime” of 3-4 months before the onset of hostilities. At that moment, it appeared to be mere rhetoric. However, it now seems that Vučić may be privy to certain information, given his position at the heart of European affairs.

This is not due to any geopolitical vision, or worse, a premonition, but solely because of specific military preparations. These preparations, firstly, do not occur spontaneously, and secondly, everything unfolds in accordance with military science, particularly on the eve of the commencement of hostilities.

The impending NATO strike

How will a full-scale strike on Russia begin? At the beginning, a few hundred aircraft and at least one and a half thousand Tomahawk missiles could be involved, which are planned to suppress Russian air defenses. After the destruction of Russia’s front-line aviation and the achievement of air supremacy, favorable conditions will be created for the offensive of ground forces on the territory of Russia.

It should be noted that the locations of Russia’s air defenses are currently being actively determined, leading to an ongoing overload of these systems. This situation results in not only military engagements but also civilian casualties. It seems that preparations are being made for the anticipated arrival of the well-known F-16s and French Mirages, as well as for events of a more significant scale.

When exactly a NATO strike on Russia can be expected, the beginning could occur in August – early September.

Drawing from the experience of preparing American troops for combat operations, the initial step involves stockpiling resources. To conduct an air offensive operation, approximately one and a half to two million tons of various munitions are required. This accumulation process typically spans about six months.

Rewinding six months to December, NATO was not poised for an attack. Based on estimates, the anticipated strike would likely occur in late August or early September. Drawing from NATO’s operational history, an air campaign would span two or three days before the deployment of ground forces.

The global mobilization of NATO countries for a large-scale conflict with Russia commenced around March-April 2024. Coincidentally, it was during this time that the alliance deployed a record number of forces and equipment in an exercise named “Steadfast Defender”.

The initial phase of the exercise, known as Ice Camp, took place from March 8 to March 29 in the Arctic. During this stage, NATO forces simulated a conflict scenario in the Arctic, involving multiple HIMARS divisions and the simultaneous deployment of the Hampton and Indiana nuclear submarines. Concurrently, the Arctic Edge exercises were conducted, featuring American and Norwegian elite special forces training in challenging weather conditions. The exercises extended to Finnish territory until March 15 and continued in Norway from March 18 as part of Arctic Shock.

In this context, it is not surprising that Finland and Sweden, as new members of the alliance, have been chosen as the primary platforms for a strike on Russia.

The fact is, under the guise of exercises, NATO has already formed strike groups since 2023, which will participate in a future strike.

Last year, NATO utilized approximately 450 aircraft during the exercises. Indeed, preparations were underway for a comprehensive air offensive operation. Adding 150 to these 450 yields the required 600 aircraft. Thus, everything is already prepared. It was for this reason that Finland and Sweden were incorporated into NATO. They provide a foothold, and everything is set for a strike on Russia.

Under a credible pretext, NATO is deploying a number of aircraft. They will incur losses, which will then be used as a basis for an invasion.

The possibility of using Ukrainian F-16s and Mirage-2000s as a pretext for a strike remains uncertain, though a strike, particularly on the Armavir radar station, seems very likely.

Previously, strikes targeted the radar station in the northwestern sector, which were mostly repelled successfully, thwarting NATO’s efforts. Additionally, Ukrainian drones have already struck the control center at Armavir.

Ukraine is also mobilizing; it has recently deployed additional reserves and weaponry to the front line, and the intelligence activities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have intensified in the frontline zone, according to various reports.

In the Lviv region of Western Ukraine, preparations are underway at a specialized airfield capable of handling a substantial influx of advanced weaponry.

An air bridge is expected to be established soon between the United States and Poland to facilitate their transfer.

Additionally, there are plans to transport weapons via railway, with updates being made to 75 kilometers of track extending from the Polish border to the airfield in Lviv.

The U.S. Agency for International Development has officially confirmed a contract request for the complete overhaul of Ukraine’s railway infrastructure. This includes a 75-kilometer stretch from Lviv to the Mostyska II freight station, impacting the Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, and Chernivtsi regions. The 14th Corps, comprising six air regiments and two divisions, is also involved.

The project entails transitioning from the “Russian” broad gauge to a standard gauge more aligned with European norms—shifting from 1520 mm to 1435 mm.

Evidence suggests that tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, equipped with Western-made BRDMs, are scheduled for delivery via water routes from Bulgaria and Romania, both neighboring Ukraine.

Considering the delivery of the promised F-16s (over 80 units) and numerous French Mirage-2000s, along with the potential transfer of additional aircraft, including F-35s from the Netherlands equipped with B61 nuclear bombs—which the United States has unprecedentedly permitted to be used without its direct consent—the reports of “a large-scale transfer of aviation equipment” gain substantial credibility.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have been officially training on the F-16 for over six months, and Kyiv intends to deploy these fighters in a forthcoming “counteroffensive.” This anticipated Ukrainian offensive is expected to be abrupt, formidable, featuring an aerial component, long-range bombardments, and network-centric warfare.

Analysts at the American Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) have recently evaluated NATO’s preparedness for conflict with Russia. They believe that the North Atlantic Alliance has significantly advanced in its preparations. Notably, over the past two years, NATO countries have made considerable strides, especially in terms of increasing defense spending. Nonetheless, the capability of NATO to engage in a “protracted war” is still a matter of debate.

We remain hopeful that we are prepared for such eventualities.