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What The Hell Is Going On With UFOs And The Department Of Defense?

What The Hell Is Going On With UFOs And The Department Of Defense? 88

© Defense Department

Tyler Rogaway
The Drive

This UFO footage released by the Defense Department shows a remarkable UFO captured on camera onboard the Navy F / A-18 Super Hornet chasing the unidentified flying object

Few stories have garnered more requests from our readers for commentary than the recent news that the Navy has decided to very publicly change its reporting rules and procedures for when its personnel observes an unexplained phenomenon like a UFO and a USO.

There have been wildly varying takes on this sudden change, but the truth is that it is very hard to know what to make of it considering how absurd it sounds-the Navy now wants to know about unidentified craft that can penetrate airspace over its installations and around its most capable naval vessels with impunity? Shouldn’t that be a default position for a service tasked with defending American interests and controlling vast swathes of area above, below, and on the surface of the Earth? 

Politico was first to report on the Navy’s new directions for reporting unexplained objects operating in the same environment as its vessels and aircraft. Politico’s Bryan Bender writes:

“There have been a number of reports of unauthorized and/or unidentified aircraft entering various military-controlled ranges and designated air space in recent years,” the Navy said in a statement in response to questions from POLITICO. “For safety and security concerns, the Navy and the [U.S. Air Force] takes these reports very seriously and investigates each and every report.”

“As part of this effort,” it added, “the Navy is updating and formalizing the process by which reports of any such suspected incursions can be made to the cognizant authorities. A new message to the fleet that will detail the steps for reporting is in draft.”

To be clear, the Navy isn’t endorsing the idea that its sailors have encountered alien spacecraft. But it is acknowledging there have been enough strange aerial sightings by credible and highly trained military personnel that they need to be recorded in the official record and studied – rather than dismissed as some kooky phenomena from the realm of science-fiction.

The Washington Post did their own follow-up to Politico’s story, stating:

Recently, unidentified aircraft have entered military-designated airspace as often as multiple times per month, Joseph Gradisher, spokesman for office of the deputy chief of naval operations for information warfare, told The Washington Post on Wednesday.

Citing safety and security concerns, Gradisher vowed to “investigate each and every report.”

He said, “We want to get to the bottom of this. We need to determine who’s doing it, where it’s coming from and what their intent is. We need to try to find ways to prevent it from happening again.”

In recent years, from what we can tell, in part by the reporting done by The War Zone itself, is that there is no real way to distinctly classify something like a UFO or USO in such a way that it gets reported and an investigation occurs on an official level within the military. This appears to be true for civilian government institutions, like the FAA, as well.

The lack of a structured procedure and classification system, and the nebulous fear of being stigmatized by reporting things like UFOs-something that has long plagued the military and private sectors alike-has repressed the conveyance of information in unquantifiable, but hugely significant ways. 

This reality has led to much speculation, and rightfully so, that the military knows far more about these strange happenings than they are willing to let on, at least on the surface. Otherwise, why wouldn’t they want to know more about intruders wielding fantastic technology that makes them impervious to existing countermeasures and defenses?

Now all this appears to be changing on a grand level, but why?

The technology is real

The fact is that we actually know that in the last 15 years, under at least some circumstances, the military has wanted certain high-fidelity data related to encounters with what many would call UFOs. The most compelling encounter of our time, at least that we know of, occurred in and around where the Nimitz Carrier Strike Group was operating during workups to deployment in 2004.

The incident, or really the series of incidents as they occurred over a number of days, have become near legendary in nature as the witnesses involved are highly credible in nature and numerous. In addition, we have official reports detailing the incident that convey a very compelling story, as well as hours of testimony from those who were there-a group of sailors and naval aviators that seems to be emerging more and more out of the shadows with each passing day.

This is a very basic, but a well-produced overview of the main ‘Tic Tac’ incident. I highly recommend you read the story linked above and the report embedded in it for a much deeper understanding of the events that occurred over multiple days around the Nimitz Carrier Strike Group in 2004:

When it comes to the so-called “Tic Tac” incident that involved the Nimitz Carrier Strike Group off the Baja Peninsula in 2004, conclusions that are nearly impossible not to draw from it are so reality warping that even the forward-thinking aerospace community doesn’t seem to have even begun coming to terms with them.

The main revelation is that technology exists that is capable of performing flying maneuvers that shatter our perceptions of propulsion, flight controls, material science, and even physics. Let me underline this again for you, the Nimitz encounter with the Tic Tac proved that exotic technology that is widely thought of as the domain of science fiction actually exists. It is real. It isn’t the result of altered perception, someone’s lucid dream, a stray weather balloon, or swamp gas. Someone or something has crossed the technological Rubicon and has obtained what some would call the Holy Grail of aerospace engineering. 

This reality is very hard to process for many. There is always an out for some in the form of claiming an odd impromptu conspiracy or some hollow explanation that doesn’t pass muster beyond the first paragraph, but in the end, it happened. As uncomfortable as that fact is, it’s reality. So, we need to use this event as a lodestar going forward when it comes to evaluating and contemplating what is possible and where truth actually lies.

Here are video interviews of some of those who were there. Some are quite informal, but they give a good idea of what individuals’ unique perceptions were of the events in question:

What many may not know about this event is that it occurred in a place and time where the most powerful set of aerial surveillance sensors ever created were amassed together and were watching and recording it all. And it is the recording part that is maybe the most interesting facet of the Nimitzencounters that has largely been passed over in terms of significance and notoriety. 

Ideal test conditions

What most don’t realize is that the Nimitz Carrier Strike Group wasn’t just equipped with some of the most advanced sensors the world had to offer, but that it also had hands-down the most advanced networking and computer processing capability of any such system. Dubbed Cooperative Engagement Capability (CEC), this integrated air defense system architecture was just being fielded on a Strike Group level for the first time aboard Nimitz and the rest of its flotilla. 

Our readers are familiar with CEC and the follow-on iterations that have come since, as we talk about the concepts behind them often. At its very basic level, it uses the Strike Group’s diverse and powerful surveillance sensors, including the SPY-1 radars on Aegis Combat System-equipped cruisers and destroyers, as well as the E-2C Hawkeye’s radar picture from on high, and fuses that information into a common ‘picture’ via data-links and advanced computer processing. This, in turn, provides very high fidelity ‘tracks’ of targets thanks to telemetry from various sensors operating at different bands and looking at the same target from different aspects and at different ranges.

Whereas a stealthy aircraft or one employing electronic warfare may start to disappear on a cruiser’s radar as it is viewing the aircraft from the surface of the Earth and from one angle, it may still be very solid on the E-2 Hawkeye’s radar that is orbiting at 25,000 feet and a hundred miles away from the cruiser. With CEC, the target will remain steady on both platform’s CEC enabled screens as they are seeing fused data from both sources and likely many others as well.

We are talking about a quantum leap in capability and fidelity here folks.

The data-link connectivity and the quality of the enhanced telemetry means that weapons platforms, such as ships and aircraft, could also fire on targets without needing to use their own sensor data. For instance, a cruiser could fire a missile at a low-flying aircraft that is being tracked by a Hawkeye and an F/A-18 even though it doesn’t show up on their own scopes. This capability continues to evolve and mature today and will be the linchpin of any peer-state naval battle of the future that the U.S. is involved with. But back in 2004, it was new and untested on the scale presented by the Nimitz Carrier Strike Group as it churned through the warning areas off the Baja Coast.

The key takeaway here is that if ever there was an opportune time to capture the very best real-world sensor data on a high-performance target in near lab-like controlled settings offered by the restricted airspace off the Baja Coast, this was it. And by intention or chance, this is exactly what happened.

Someone within the DoD was very interested

By multiple accounts from vetted first-hand sources, the hard drives that record CEC data from the E-2C Hawkeye and Aegis-equipped ships were seized in a very mysterious fashion following the Tic Tac incident. Uniformed U.S. Air Force officers showed up on these vessels and confiscated the devices and they were never to be seen again. This is not rumor or hearsay, this is attested to by multiple uniformed witnesses that were on the vessels that made up the Nimitz Carrier Strike Group at the time. 

At the same time, on an official level, the Navy seemed to shut down any further investigation into the incident. The aforementioned after-action report states that the Nimitz Carrier Strike Group’s senior intelligence officer, whose name is redacted, alerted the Navy’s 3rd Fleet intelligence officer, or N2, about the incident via secure Email. That same Email, known as a Mission Report (MISREP), included the video footage and other details.

For unexplained reasons, officials at the 3rd Fleet N2 declined to send this report up the chain of command. They also deleted the MISREP, but speculated that paper copy should have been available. However, there is no indication that anyone went looking for this physical copy of the MISREP during the investigation.

When interviewed, the Nimitz Strike Group’s senior intelligence officer also offered up the opinion that “he believed it [the UFO] was part of a counterdrug operation based on the area of operations,” which seems wholly incongruous with the available information.

As such, even though there is no official indication that an investigation into the events that week ever occurred at a very high level beyond after-action reports, we know someone within the military had a very high interest in what went on and wanted the high-fidelity radar data collected from the Strike Group. Not just deleted, but seized, potentially for exploitation. 

So yeah, someone was highly interested in this event within the DoD. Whether that was because it was of an unexplained nature or part of a test of a very capable secret aerospace program, remains unclear.

Could it be ours?

The latter possibility is also very hard for people to come to terms with-that this capability could belong to the U.S. military. There is no better place to test such a system than against the Nimitz Carrier Strike Group with its CEC abilities during its workup off the Baja Coast. It is not an operational environment. Aircraft are not armed and nobody is expecting a fight. It is high-level integrated training with crews that have sharpened skills as they prepare for a cruise in which they could very well be called upon to fight for their country. Those warning areas and range complexes that extend out and down from the Channel Islands off the SoCal coast are among the best space the U.S. military has for training and testing advanced hardware and tactics in a secure and sanitized environment.

In other words, it was an ideal testing environment that featured the very best aerial, surface, and undersea surveillance sensors and sensor crews on the planet.

What The Hell Is Going On With UFOs And The Department Of Defense? 89

© fas.org
The expansive range complexes and warning areas off Southern California and Mexico.

In addition, the fact is that the U.S. government has poured the equivalent of tens of billions of dollars each year into the black budget for the better part of a century. The idea that somewhere along the way they got lucky and made major breakthroughs in highly exotic technologies may not be convenient to believe as a possibility for those that have grander visions for the unexplained, but I contend that it is quite plausible. In fact, it mirrors the cryptic statements made by top players in the dark areas of aerospace development, such as those of the late Ben Rich, a Lockheed’s Skunk Works chief that is largely credited for giving birth to stealth technology as we know it today. For instance, Rich told Popular Mechanics the following that underscores just how long major breakthroughs in man-made clandestine aerospace technology can stay hidden:

“There are some new programs, and there are certain things, some of them 20 or 30 years old, that are still breakthroughs and appropriate to keep quiet about [because] other people don’t have them yet.”

Clearly, the ability to defy the limits of traditional propulsion and lift-borne flight would be the pinnacle of aerospace and electrical engineering and could be far too sensitive to disclose, at least in some people’s eyes within the national security establishment. Even the risk of testing this technology against known air defense capabilities would have to be weighed against the need for the tightest of secrecy. But since UFOs carry such a stigma and have deep pop culture roots in our society, the risk of doing so against an unknowing Carrier Strike Group operating under tight training restrictions seems small and the setting uniquely ideal. 

In other words, could the Tic Tac have been ours? 

Yes. 

The same could be said of our adversaries. They too could have made some breakthroughs in highly exotic propulsion technology, but I find this less likely due to their more limited resources. But it is still possible.

Yet at the same time, we know that whoever that craft belonged to, the information the flotilla collected on it was of great importance to some entity within the DoD. And the fact that just the radar data was seized makes sense in that the extent of the Nimitz Carrier Strike Group radar network could not be replicated over land during small-scale testing, or via a chance encounters with military aircraft. Electro-optical data could. The Nimitz Carrier Strike Group represented literally the sum of many parts spread out over a large area and made up of tens of billions of dollars in assets operating with the best technology available at the time.

With all this in mind, the idea that the Navy is supposedly just now interested in what its aviators and sailors see when it comes to unexplained craft peculiar and nebulous, to say the least. One can’t help but feel there are two realities at play within America’s defense apparatus-one that sits on or very near the surface and one that resides deep below it.

Information warfare

If the DoD truly has no idea of what these things are, then it seems absurd that it is just now curious about them after the better part of a century of sightings and even major encounters, including many having to do with its own installations and personnel. In fact, we know that isn’t historically the case and that there has been varying degrees of documented interest in the topic over the years, including funded studies as recently as the last decade in the form of the Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program-better known as AATIP-and who knows what else we don’t know about.

But even AATIP, like the statements we are getting from the Navy today, could have been something designed to emerge into the public domain. One could posit the peculiar assembly of To The Stars Academy, a hybrid entertainment and UFO research corporation assembled by ex-Blink 182 frontman Tom DeLonge that has oddly attracted a number of impressive team members from the defense, aerospace, and intelligence community, is also a government-manufactured-or at least encouraged-information conduit of sorts, at least to some degree. Nearly all of the individuals on its impressive roster are fresh off long careers working, in one way or another, for the government and holding very high-security clearances to do so. This includes Luis Elizondo, the same guy who supposedly ran AATIP for the Defense Intelligence Agency up until its shuttering in 2012.

Watch DeLonge on Joe Rogan for an idea of just how questionable this whole arrangement sounds:

This, folks, is where the rabbit hole of information and disinformation opens up below us. There is no way around it. With the vacuum of verifiable information that the government has created on the matter, and all the rumor and speculation, one’s truth compass begins to spin with reckless abandon as you dig into these issues. It is not only about what is real and what is not real, but it is also about what does the government want us to believe and not to believe. The truth could be the eventual goal, but getting there may include a long trail of often stale factoid crumbs that seem to lead in puzzling directions. In other words, even if the government wants the truth to come out eventually, it seems alarmingly clear they are going to do it on their own terms, and the timeline for that plan could be measured in decades, not years, or more.

On the other hand, putting a possible goal of disclosure aside, there is also a very real reason why the Pentagon would want the idea of UFOs injected back into the public’s consciousness and even to add validity to it. Doing so is in itself a very old chapter in Uncle Sam’s information warfare playbook. During the Cold War, the government actively lied about UFOs and perpetuated UFO hysteria to cover up its secret aircraft programs. They literally spread disinformation to the public in order to create a wonderfully convenient cover for the myriad clandestine weapon systems in development or operational at the time. Now, we are once again back in an age of “great power competition,” according to the Pentagon, and billions of dollars are being pumped into new technologies that were considered exotic themselves just years ago. With this in mind, reanimating maybe the best and most broadly self-perpetuating cover story of all time for sightings of clandestine aircraft that people see in the sky seems like a highly logical and proven act.

As I have said over and over again, the sky, and the things we are accustomed to seeing inhabiting it, is going to look increasingly different in the very near term. Hypersonicsdrone swarmsdirected energy weapons, and a full-on emerging arms race in space are just some of the very real activities and technologies that will dominate the near future of American weapons development. The products of all of these initiatives, once manifested, could appear positively alien to curious bystanders. 

The military will be able to explain some of this, but some of it they won’t. So, reinvigorating the presence of UFOs in the American psyche by adding heaps of validity to the topic on an official level and possibly also on a less than official level (To The Stars Academy for instance) can help keep secret programs that grace the skies just that, secret. And who knows, that list of programs and technologies could include the very Tic Tac and other bizarrely shaped craft that can defy imagination with their aerial feats that have been spotted and even recorded in recent years. In fact, if the U.S. military has such a capability, the UFO cover story would be imperative to keeping the nature of its existence under wraps.

The game has changed

If the Pentagon really doesn’t know what these things are or where they come from, after so many years of sightings and odd encounters and its own studies and shadowy probes, then that would be an unfathomable dereliction of duty considering they are, you know, tasked with keeping America safe from the foreign harm. But really, how can we believe the idea that the military has zero opinion on the matter. It seems like a laughable proposition at best. If there is anything they would have high interest in, it would be craft capable of decimating the enemy on a whim.

With all that being said, what does the Navy’s move to change its procedures and rules in regards to reporting UFOs mean?

Nothing, at least not definitively.

Is it a case of one hand not knowing what the other hand is doing? Is it just a relevant move in this new era of heightened power competition with peer state adversaries? Or is somehow part of a broader information campaign with unidentified goals?

We can’t say for sure, but a mix of all of those things and more is certainly possible. The reality is the entire narrative, and at times the lack thereof, on UFOs from the Department of Defense, is a total mess of contradictory statements and historical facts.

Whatever the truth is, the landscape when it comes to the U.S. government and its relation to unexplained objects in the sky and in our oceans is clearly changing. 

To what end remains just as much a mystery as the fantastic vehicles themselves.

Aliens & UFO's

The unusual hobby of the husband of Elizabeth II is unveiled. The uncle of Prince Philip had a UFO encounter

The unusual hobby of the husband of Elizabeth II is unveiled. The uncle of Prince Philip had a UFO encounter 102

The unusual hobby of the 99-year-old Prince Philip has been unveiled. According to the newspaper The Sun, the husband of the British Queen Elizabeth II, for many decades collected an assortment of books about UFOs and space aliens.

Philip became interested in this topic after his uncle Lord Mounbatten in 1955 wrote an official report on an alien encounter. The admiral and last Viceroy of India (who was killed by Irish terrorists in 1979) reported that a silver spaceship had landed on his estate in Hampshire. 

According to Mountbatten’s report, the “flying saucer” hovered above the ground before someone wearing overalls and a helmet descended from the ship. Then, Mountbatten’s bricklayer Fred Briggs, who witnessed the event, was reportedly knocked off his bicycle and pinned to the ground by an “invisible force.” Lord Mountbatten kept this a secret from the general public.

The Duke of Edinburgh Prince Philip is still adding to his collection. So, he made his last purchase last year. And last summer, he read The Halt Perspective, by retired US Air Force Colonel Charles Holt and Police Detective John Hanson, about the Randlesham incident. In late December 1980, a series of alleged UFO landings, accompanied by unexplained fires, took place in Randlesham Forest, British County Suffolk. 

It was not far from an American Air Force base. Dozens of base personnel witnessed these events for several days, observing unidentified triangular-shaped objects, and then strange tracks were allegedly found in the forest. One of the witnesses claimed that he even allegedly touched the triangular UFO. Charles Holt was deputy base commander at the time.

The personal secretary of the Duke of Edinburgh wrote to John Hanson that the prince would read this book with interest, as well as another work by Hanson – “Haunted Heaven: An Encyclopedia of British UFOs.”

“His Royal Highness will add this piece to his collection … This will be the most anticipated addition to his library,” Secretary Archie Miller Bakewell wrote.

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Aliens & UFO's

You – The Public Deceived: What are the “aliens” hiding?

You - The Public Deceived: What are the "aliens" hiding? 103
Youtube

Philip Kinsella’s book You – The Public Deceived  is among the few works that when read, is interesting and helpful.

Cover of Philip Kinsell's You Are the Deceived Public
Cover of Philip Kinsell’s You Are the Deceived Public

The author of the book, which will be published in the UK in 2021, tells in detail about cases of contacts with UFOs, which at one time had a great public response. Newspapers wrote about these events and were told on television. However, the details of the events remain known only to researchers. The value of the book lies in the fact that the author gives a detailed and not biased description of all the details of the events he talks about.

One might get the impression that he is describing a fairly long time ago, because several decades have passed since the UFO crash in Roswell, from the abduction of Betty and Barney Hill, from other events described in the book. However, despite the past years, nothing has changed in the world. Now, too, none of the people are immune from UFO abduction. And I will not be mistaken if I say that thousands of people have already experienced on themselves what abduction or rotational UFO abduction is. 

Therefore, the better we understand what’s going on, the sooner we’ll figure out what these strange little gray-skinned creatures with almond-shaped eyes really need from us. Well, or their owners.

Not just a story about UFO encounters

Philip Kinsella raises a very uncomfortable question – who are they really? After all, it is very easy to believe that these are aliens from other heavenly bodies, especially since they themselves persistently impose such an opinion on us. If we study only the characteristics of the aircraft belonging to them (speeds, side lights, etc.), it becomes clear that our human technology has not yet learned how to create such aircraft. 

You can even explain why the complex and unpleasant procedures of medical supervision are needed to which the abducted people are subjected – they say that guests from another planet arrived and decided to study the aborigines.

You - The Public Deceived: What are the "aliens" hiding? 104

But if we pay attention to other details of contacts between people and “aliens” that are not included in the paradigm of human materialistic science, then the most unexpected begins.

First, these strange creatures did not appear now, but were known to our ancestors for a long time – at least several thousand years (information about this is available not only in historical memory, but also in objects of art and everyday life). Only in the old days they were called differently and were not considered to belong to the human world.

Secondly, they perfectly know how to manipulate our ideas and do not hesitate to use such possibilities of the human psyche, which seem unusual even to us.

Thirdly, for some reason they erase the memory of the people they have kidnapped, that is, they behave not like guests from the stellar worlds, but like secret intelligence officers who do not want to be discovered. At the same time, they are not guided by the interests of humanity, but only by their own interests (this would be understandable, if only they did not harm …)

Fourth, they skillfully use the capabilities of the human body, which we still consider mystical and not fully proven. For example, OBE is an out-of-body experience, or hypnotic phenomena, with the help of which they produce various – necessary for them – effects on the tissues of the body of abducted people.

They constantly monitor what is happening in the human world

One of the first to draw attention to such oddities was the ufologist Jacques Vallee, the closest associate of the American researcher, Dr. Allen Heineck. Further research confirms that the psychophysical aspect of the UFO Phenomenon is the most important in its solution. And Philip Kinsella’s book once again draws attention to this.

You - The Public Deceived: What are the "aliens" hiding? 105

In the book “You – The Public Deceived ” The author shows cases that are especially strange even against the background of a phenomenon that is strange in itself. On the other hand, it raises the question of how great is the role of military and government organizations in suppressing the topic of UFOs. 

It seems that such a role is overestimated in the European and American communities. The same people work in these structures, they are also afraid of those events that become known to them by virtue of their profession. They need to keep calm in the community to which they belong. They have only the education and level of knowledge that they received in their educational institutions. Because of this, they try to hide from ordinary people the facts that become known to them. Conceal by any means, even through intimidation of witnesses and researchers. This is an “ostrich” policy, but it is somehow understandable, because if society understands

One gets the impression that the ongoing events in their entirety should be viewed as a hoax campaign on the part of “aliens”. Now, if we study the UFO Phenomenon “from the opposite”, then we will gradually be able to understand from what real knowledge about its nature it takes us away. If we analyze the UFO cover-up campaign from the point of view of the presence of disinformation in it, only then will we be able to understand who and why is taking the human gaze to heaven, taking advantage of our long-term dream of finding aliens.

You - The Public Deceived: What are the "aliens" hiding? 106

Philip Kinsella in his book You – The Public Deceived draws attention to another oddity – the manifestation of the UFO Phenomenon does not always have a material nature. This is especially true in cases of physical contact. It seems that there was interaction. An eyewitness remembered this interaction as absolutely material. However, not a single material trace of this event remained. The author shows the details of the events he describes, which just indicate a semi-material nature. This fact is confirmed by the information of other researchers. 

Yes, many UFOs are material. But in other cases, what we see is just … a hologram. We see the object, but the object is not, but there is simply its image. A picture, so to speak. A person remembers how he was taken aboard a UFO, and then (as he recalls) they took blood, urine, sperm – and he does not just remember this, he has scars and other marks on his body to prove it. 

In fact, his physical body remained at home (this is not difficult to establish, such techniques are in the arsenal of researchers), and on board the “flying saucer” they lifted some non-material substance, which we, being a little embarrassed, call the soul, or the astral body … But Are the scars real, you ask? Yes, they are real. 

Just think at least of the well-known mechanism of the appearance of stigmata – artificial wounds that are a bodily consequence of mental processes, for example, hypnotic suggestion. The experience of studying such events suggests the following. 

“Aliens” can influence the human body according to the principle of psychosomatics. The impact is made on the immaterial part of the personality, and the physical body then “adjusts” and begins to rebuild itself. And this is not fantasy. 

Therefore, Philip comes to a well-grounded conclusion that the nature of “dreams” may not be completely material or completely immaterial.

Perhaps the so-called “UFO pilots” do not pay attention to the suffering of the people over whom they manipulate, because the body that is being manipulated by them is not physical. They just don’t understand our pain, although for humanity this serves as a weak excuse. 

For us, people, it is very important to objectively understand what the UFO Phenomenon is, who and why is subjecting our fellow citizens to such forced and unpleasant manipulations. Hopefully, then we will be able to protect ourselves from their constant forced monitoring.

An attempt to reveal such a mystery and explain what is really happening is the main advantage of the new book by Philip Kinsella.

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Aliens & UFO's

Scientists have established the age of the first alien civilization with which people will come into contact

Scientists have established the age of the first alien civilization with which people will come into contact 107

To search for extraterrestrial civilizations, mankind uses its best equipment, while simultaneously creating more and more advanced technologies. Thus, scientists are trying to find an answer to one of the most important questions in science: “where is everyone?” According to experts, there are many hypothetical solutions for this problem, but eventually the day will come when astronomers will finally answer it.

Scientists have established the age of the first alien civilization with which people will come into contact 108
Photo: open source

Today many are trying to understand what the intelligent civilization that we will find will be. According to astrophysicist Carl Sagan, it is unlikely that it will be similar to ours in terms of technological progress. However, he did not say about the relative age of such a civilization and whether it would want to communicate with us. This question was answered by a group of astronomers using one of the most overlooked mathematical tools: statistics.

According to their model, any intelligent civilization is most likely not just older than ours, it is much older, according to Universe Today. Scientists decided to find out how people can establish contact with a civilization that is a billion years old. As a result, they settled on a model known as exponential distribution. It is considered quite common in statistics and usually requires only one variable to determine the shape of the curve.

Scientists have established the age of the first alien civilization with which people will come into contact 109
© SETIsearch for extraterrestrial civilizations

As a result, it turned out that the most suitable average life expectancy for an intelligent alien civilization is about twice the current age of ours. However, the authors do not directly indicate how old we are, but note that the mathematics works no matter which number is used.

For example, if the age of our civilization is defined as 12,000 years, during which we are engaged in agriculture, then it is likely that extraterrestrial civilizations will do this on average for 24,000 years. But this does not mean that at the end of this period everyone dies, it is just that they no longer do what was used to define the very concept of “civilization”.

On the other hand, if we take the time during which we emit radio waves into space (100 years) as the starting point, then the aliens will do this for 200 years. Around the same time, they will start using more advanced technologies that replace radio waves, for example, lasers. Thus, although civilization has ceased to exist as “radio-emitting”, its representatives are still alive and well, but they are using a new, less detectable technology for us.

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