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Theory of the Black Swan. The consequences of coronavirus

Theory of the Black Swan. The consequences of coronavirus 1

The “Black Swan” is Taleb’s theory, which examines difficult-to-predict and rare events that have tremendous impact and require a new explanation, which ultimately turns out to be simple. Practice has shown that no one can ever predict crises (this is assumed by the theory itself), but experts all over the world regularly try to do this.

“When we saw what was happening, we began to think about how to make the world less connected. I think that everything is not so complicated. We should simply avoid the so-called “super-distributors,” as I call them, introduce more regulation at airports, allow states to close borders, or simply test people before they enter the country. Because we don’t need much to avoid the next epidemic, ”Taleb said.

“And, although the current pandemic is not over yet, if we solve this problem, next time we will know exactly how to respond if the situation is related to a respiratory disease. But if the disease is not respiratory, then we will need to re-learn, ”he warned. According to Taleb, the coronavirus pandemic is not a “black swan”, since its spread could be predicted: The essence of the “black swan” is that it cannot be predicted. What we call “white” and “gray” swans are events that are worth worrying about because they are inevitable.

Society should determine the system of its vulnerabilities to these events in order to be able to confront them in the future, Taleb says. “We had vulnerabilities to a pandemic, now people know about them, we have financial vulnerabilities, now people know about them. We have climate vulnerabilities, people know about them. Now we have to worry about GMOs, genetic modifications, as one source of vulnerability, and people will now pay attention to this,” he concluded.


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