The magnetic storm that erupted on the night of May 10 is acknowledged as the most potent since at least 2003, surpassing it in several aspects and setting a multi-decade record. This storm resulted from a burst in a massive solar spot. Astronomers, upon initial observation of this spot, felt apprehensive. Its intricate and branched structure suggested a formidable magnetic field strength, indicative of flares and subsequent magnetic storms. Furthermore, this spot bore a striking resemblance to the one that unleashed a solar storm in 1859, which at the time, disrupted the sparse electrical equipment. The question arises, what if history repeats itself now?
This time, the equipment managed to survive, despite power outages, GPS failures, and other issues across the globe, with some satellites failing to endure the impact. Yet, we witnessed something extraordinary. For the first time in at least 30 years, auroras appeared in Namibia! Meanwhile, in Cuba, the heat was so intense that people stayed up all night, captivated by the sky.
Subsequently, the spot, following the sun’s rotation, vanished behind the horizon, leaving everyone to speculate about its return. While satellites can monitor the sun from every angle, they cannot yet replace ground-based observations.
Recently, precursors to the megaspot emerged, and by Wednesday, the megaspot itself reappeared at the very brink. The astronomers’ consensus was clear: it is disintegrating.
So far, we observe this spot on the periphery, in projection, which limits our ability to evaluate various aspects, such as field intensity. Furthermore, upon its emergence, the spot had already emitted X-class flares, the most intense category, which continue to be directed away from Earth.
Everything begins in 3 days
In roughly three days, the sunspot will be positioned to potentially affect Earth, likely starting this weekend. Given that this sunspot has already produced several X-class flares, it is anticipated to continue this activity. If it were an ordinary sunspot, such expectations would not be held.
What will occur, and when can we expect a storm?
It’s crucial to note that precise predictions of solar flares and ejections are not made; these phenomena involve a significant degree of randomness and complexity that science has yet to fully grasp.
However, once the sunspot rotates slightly towards us, it will be feasible to discuss the timing and intensity of the events, but not much beyond that. When a flare happens and the ejection is observed heading towards Earth, more detailed information will become available. Emissions typically take a few days to reach Earth, providing time to prepare.
Even so, predictions of magnetic storms are often off the mark. For instance, the intensity of the storm on May 10 was not anticipated by most field experts.
Cold Sun
The renowned Japanese researcher Hisashi Hayakawa has undertaken a meticulous task. He has charted instances of auroras visible to the naked eye at southern latitudes along the “arrow of time” since 1520.
Professional astronomers naturally had numerous inquiries regarding the findings of this study. Given the scarcity of written sources from antiquity, the data for such a chart is limited. Yet, Hayakawa confidently identifies the Little Ice Age (1600-1750), a period marked by a sparse number of auroras on his chart—possibly due to a lack of recorded information.
The Little Ice Age was a period characterized by an absence of sunspots and notably colder Earth temperatures. Anecdotes suggest that in Germany, where winters are now mild, soup would boil on one side of a pot by the fire and freeze on the other. Although thermometers existed, the lack of a standardized degree system means the exact temperatures are unknown.
Some accounts indicate that the Sun’s light appeared dimmer than it is today, and the celestial body itself seemed slightly larger. However, these details stem from historical records that may not be accurate.
Contemporary science approaches the notion of a link between solar activity and Earth’s weather with considerable skepticism, particularly regarding a direct correlation.
Indeed, the graphics suggest something intriguing. It appears that auroras were more intense in the mid-twentieth century than they are now, with the event of May 10 being particularly notable. This could imply that we are entering an era of a cooling sun, potentially heralding a new ice age. However, Hayakawa remains noncommittal on this conclusion. Some scientists counter that there is no impending ice age and that the sun’s activity is currently normal, although they acknowledge that the mid-twentieth century experienced some anomalous solar activity.
During the 18th and 19th solar activity cycles, numerous auroras and magnetic storms occurred, with particularly powerful peaks. The current solar activity cycle is less intense than those. Consequently, the phenomenon observed on May 10 was exceptional. In the 1960s, such storms were more frequent.
However, it is important to remember that we are currently at the peak of solar activity, even if it is not the most intense in recorded history. Therefore, occurrences of solar flares and storms are to be expected.
