A group of scientists from the Swiss Paul Scherrer Institute, together with colleagues from the United States, China, Ireland, Finland and Sweden, conducted a climate simulation on a supercomputer, according to which a climate catastrophe is possible on Earth. The results of the study are published on the website of the scientific information platform Science Direct.
In this study, the authors used climate and economic models, took into account 1200 technologies for the production and use of energy, as well as methods for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
During the experiment, the computer generated 4,000 scenarios for 15 regions of the world, taking into account the possible development of events in 10-year increments up to the year 2100. In the end, 70% of the scenarios predicted that the world would exceed the global warming mark of 1.5 degrees Celsius in the next five years.
These 1.5 degrees will become a safe boundary, after which the consequences of global warming will become irreversible and catastrophic. Therefore, international experts urged to keep warming within this limit. But not everything is so simple.
Initially, this “team of researchers” was not going to make climate forecasts. The purpose of the studies is more than utilitarian. Entrepreneurs do not want to invest in green technologies, this is where the article begins. And businessmen can be understood. The technology itself is incredibly expensive. States do not give incentives to those who have carried out technical re-equipment and no longer emit carbon dioxide into the atmosphere of Mother Earth.
On the other hand, the climate reacts bizarrely to all our attempts, and more often not at all. They hung solar panels everywhere, set up wind generators, but there was about zero sense, the warming went on and on. Therefore, entrepreneurs, while verbally supporting the “green course”, are gradually returning to the good old oil, and even coal.
The climate is not “push the button, you get the result”. You think you’re doing the climate well, but it’s only making it worse. And vice versa. Accordingly, all the calls that you probably heard from the stands of international institutions are mostly utopias.
“The level of false accuracy of temperature estimates to one-tenth of a degree Celsius in 80 years is astonishing. The complex energy-climate-economy system is complex and uncertain. The best synonym for the diplomatic “level of false precision”, it would be the word “nonsense.”
Everything that is currently promised is just fantasy.
Another conclusion that strikes at the heart of the supporters of “quick, decisive action”: there is no technology that would guarantee climate change and avoid global warming. So, neither solar panels nor wind generators will give anything by themselves. Some effect is visible only if a set of technologies is applied, but reasonably, in the right combination.
Solar panels also need to be manufactured, and this is a dirty technology, but that’s not even the point. Reliability of power supply is reduced. The sun is either there or not. They tell you that they will save some batteries and other devices, but in reality all this is at the stage of tests and theories. Thus, entire territories are immersed in energy chaos, and the people will not hesitate at all to chop firewood and heat the stove.
What is proposed?
Best of all, the authors of the study argue, is hydrogen energy in combination with other methods as auxiliary. By the way, nuclear fuel is among them and is considered as quite a solution. At the same time, as you know, radical climate activists oppose the peaceful atom.
There are other complexes of technologies, but weaker ones. For example, the vaunted biofuel can fire in tandem with the wind and the Sun, and so on.
What is most unpleasant, but the study says this as a matter of course. Poor countries will reduce emissions by curtailing industry. It’s already happening. The world is in crisis. As a result, the quota will be released, that is, the right to spoil Mother Nature. This quota will be taken by developed countries and will burn oil and coal in order to achieve economic growth. And this is normal, the authors believe!
It is assumed that, having supported the growth of the economy, developed countries use the money for clean solutions. Developed countries will (and already are) increasingly twisting the arms of poor countries, and increasingly support the “growing needs” of their populations.
Well, the level of development of civilization is now such that with a probability of 70 percent, as mentioned at the beginning, in just five years the temperature will rise by the notorious 1.5 degrees. If there was a ready-made “green” solution, of course, the elite would put it on schedule, and even switched to it. But it just doesn’t exist.
However, there is a very important caveat here. Are these 1.5 degrees really so scary? After all, these are again only probabilities and “false accuracy”. The authors of the article, to their credit, do not give a definite answer.
The conclusions from this, in fact, amazing article, are as follows:
The earth will continue to warm up. No one knows yet how scary it is;
The vaunted “green technologies” are still in their infancy, and talking about them is pure PR;
Rich countries will get richer, poor countries will get poorer, and no one knows what this will lead to globally;
Despite our attempts, nature develops along its own trajectory, which we are not yet able to influence.