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The Battle for Europe: Forecasts and reflections on the possible development of events in 2025

The Battle for Europe: Forecasts and reflections on the possible development of events in 2025 1
Photo: www.wsj.com

One of the most talked-about events of the past year was Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections. This isn’t surprising, as the United States remains a significant global power. Given that Trump represents the conservative camp, it’s fair to say that Trump’s victory will have a substantial impact on international relations and US foreign policy.

It’s naïve to think that the opposition, after their defeat represented by the US Democratic Party, will simply surrender to Trump and not oppose his projects. On the contrary, we should expect this confrontation to intensify over the next four years of the Republican presidency.

One of the main arenas of this confrontation will be Europe, and there are no plans to relinquish it to Trump without a fight.

How serious are Trump’s expansionist plans?

Judging by the statements from the new US president’s camp, he plans to revive the old imperialism. After his election victory, Trump proposed annexing Canada to the United States, reclaiming the Panama Canal, and seizing Greenland, demonstrating the expansionist attitude of the new administration. This aligns with the slogan “Make America Great Again.”

However, such statements should not be taken merely as evidence of an interventionist component in the “America First” agenda. Trump often conducts foreign policy in an extravagant manner, making many threatening statements and unpredictable moves to confuse his opponents and sow chaos.

Through threats and saber-rattling, Trump expects to achieve his goals without resistance. For example, Republican Devin Carney notes that Trump’s unpredictability can be an advantage, as other countries might think, “Oh my God, he can really do this, we should try to meet him halfway.”

Canada, after threats, has already committed to securing the northern border and fighting drugs, indicating that Trump’s pressure campaign is working. Canadian investor and tycoon Kevin O’Leary supports Trump’s plans to annex Canada, seeing it as the beginning of an economic union.

However, the true nature of Trump’s policy and the seriousness of his expansionist plans will become clearer next year.

The fight for Europe will begin soon

Trump also shows interest in Europe, particularly with his promise to end the military conflict in Ukraine and demands for NATO countries to increase defense spending. These actions indicate that the new American president plans to actively interfere in European affairs.

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However, Trump will face significant challenges in Europe, as most major European players (primarily the UK, France, and Germany) will openly and implicitly try to counteract Trump, including on the issue of support for Ukraine.

Some European countries, such as the UK and France, are already forming opposition to Trump. Emmanuel Macron traveled to Poland to discuss sending a military contingent to Ukraine, and in Germany, CDU candidate Friedrich Merz argues that “peace should be concluded with Ukraine, not against Ukraine.” The EU is also taking steps that are clearly anti-Trump.

At a recent meeting with Macron, Trump used his classic “forceful handshake” to demonstrate dominance, aware that he may soon face organized opposition from “allies.” The foundation of J. Soros has always been one of the most active fighters against Trump, so European leaders associated with American Democrats will strive to ensure that Trump fails to achieve his campaign promises, including on the war in Ukraine.

In parallel, Trump will try to form his own camp, currently led by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Trump will seek to support the “right” in Europe, which may become his allies in the future.

The first battle for Europe will unfold in Germany, where elections will take place in February 2025. The Republicans would like Alice Weidel from the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party to win, as recently stated by Trump’s adviser, billionaire Elon Musk.

Musk published an article in the German newspaper Welt am Sonntag supporting the AfD, citing his significant investment in the country as justification for his participation in German politics. He later stressed on social media that only the AfD can save Germany.

The candidate here is CDU leader Friedrich Merz, who advocates increasing support for Ukraine, including the transfer of Taurus missiles. Merz’s chances of victory are currently the highest.

In the near future, the struggle for Canada will also begin, but that is another story.

Trump’s plans for Ukraine

There is no doubt that Trump will try to pressure Zelensky through his friends in Europe, like Orban and Fico. It is possible that in the first half of next year, both Slovakia and Hungary will completely stop supplying electricity to Ukraine, especially if Trump needs to make Kyiv more accommodating in peace negotiations.

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There is every reason to believe that Trump will try to achieve a peace agreement on Ukraine, although given the opposition of other European players, this will not be easy. Stopping the military conflict in Ukraine is one of Trump’s campaign promises, and he is undoubtedly trying to achieve this goal. What will come of this in practice, we will see in the first half of next year.

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