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The activation of volcanoes in Iceland and Russia concern scientists: “This is an anomaly”

The activation of volcanoes in Iceland and Russia concern scientists: "This is an anomaly" 86

Almost all volcanic eruptions of the past, leading to a cooling of the climate, coincide in time with low solar activity. 

Alarmingly, the Sun is currently passing through its deepest solar minimum in 100+ years and looking into the future, NASA found that the next cycle (25) could be “the weakest in the last 200 years” – a return to minimum conditions Dalton. 

The Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) was a period of historically low solar activity that also included the famine-inducing eruption of Mt. Tambor, in 1815.

The eruption of Tambora was one of the most powerful on Earth in the last 2000 years, and it exacerbated the cooling of the Earth, already occurring due to low solar activity. This unfortunate combination led to one of the harshest climates of the modern era – 1816 is also known as the “year without summer”.

ICELAND

Of today’s waking volcanoes, those in Iceland are perhaps the most worrying. It is this highly volcanic region that is likely to be home to the next “big” (repeat of the 536 AD eruption that destroyed the Roman Republic), which will plunge the Earth into a new volcanic winter.

The high frequency of volcanic eruptions allows scientists to detect patterns (precursors). And if these patterns are repeated every time a volcano erupts, then scientists can be more confident in their predictions.

Grimsvötn is Iceland’s most frequently erupting volcano, with approximately 65 known eruptions over the past 800 years. Icelandic scientists are closely following Grimsvotn after its 2011 eruption 

Recently, researchers have seen various signals indicating that the volcano is preparing to erupt again, and have raised the threat level.

The volcano swells as new magma moves into the channel system below it. The increase in thermal activity has led to the melting of more ice, and earthquakes have also become more frequent in recent years.

The time intervals between the eruptions of Grimsvotn are different, writes Dave McGarvey, a volcanologist at Lancaster University. For example, before the larger eruption of 2011, there were smaller eruptions in 2004, 1998, and 1983. Intermittently from four to 15 years. It is important to note that given the next eruption, Grimsvotn appears to have a pattern of infrequent large eruptions that occur every 150-200 years (e.g. 2011, 1873, 1619), with smaller and more frequent eruptions occurring approximately every ten years in between. 

If the previous model of Grimsvotn, consisting of occasional large eruptions with more numerous smaller eruptions occurring in between, continues in the future, then the next eruption should be small (considering that there was a large eruption in 2011). 

Nevertheless, the word “must” is important here, McGarvey stresses, – Iceland’s volcanoes are complex natural systems, and their patterns do not always correspond exactly to reality.

Katla is another Icelandic volcano on the verge of erupting, according to the Icelandic Meteorological Bureau (IMO). Since January of this year, researchers have recorded an upturn in and around Katla, and in recent months have recorded an increase in sulfur dioxide levels close to the site of two previous eruptions.

The previous major eruption of Katla occurred in 1918. This year is within the Hundred Years Low, the previous multi-decade period of low solar activity.

Icelandic authorities are well aware of the dangers posed by the next Katla eruption, and a delegation of volcanologists meets regularly with the Icelandic parliament to discuss how to respond in the event of an eruption.

RUSSIA

Scientists are also concerned about the unusual behavior of Klyuchevskaya Sopka Volcano (also known as Klyuchevskaya Volcano) located on the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia.

As a rule, a year passes between the eruptions of Klyuchevskoy volcano, but recently this period of calm has been reduced to two months – on October 5, 2020, night cameras recorded the outpouring of lava from the crater of the volcano’s summit.

According to Yuri Demyanchuk, head of the Klyuchevskoy volcanic station IViS, all of this indicates an impending new larger eruption. 

Klyuchevsky’s uncharacteristic behavior can lead to paroxysmal explosions (unpredictable, dangerous explosions).

“The last activation was in 2013, before that – in 1994. But so far we have not observed such an intensity of tremor to speak of an impending paroxysmal activity, ”the expert explains. – “This is an anomaly.”

Seismic and volcanic activity is associated with changes in the Sun.

Volcanic eruptions are one of the key factors pushing the Earth towards the next stage of global cooling. Volcanic ash (particulate matter) ejected more than 10 km away – and therefore into the stratosphere – obscures sunlight and lowers Earth’s temperature. Smaller particles of an eruption can linger in the upper atmosphere for years or even decades.

The recent outburst of volcanoes around the world is believed to be related to low solar activity, coronal holes, a waning magnetosphere, and an influx of cosmic rays penetrating silica-rich magma.

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Planet Earth

A new ice age: why it will begin in 2030

A new ice age: why it will begin in 2030 87

The sun is both the main source of life and the greatest threat to it. On the one hand, the star converts four million tons of matter every second into energy, which is the main source of light and heat. On the other hand, it is a source of powerful emissions that cause strong disturbances on Earth and near-earth space.

Magnetic storms and auroras are nothing more than a consequence of anomalies occurring on the luminary. Fortunately, today scientists have learned to predict these manifestations, and humanity as a whole already knows how to neutralize their negative impact.

At the same time, some of the processes occurring on the Sun cause concern among specialists. Experts around the world state an unprecedented decrease in solar activity and predict the approach of a new ice age – the fifth in the last 400 thousand years.

What are solar cycles

A lot of what happens on the Sun and, as a consequence, in the entire solar system, depends on the state of the magnetic field of the star. Its amplitude and spatial configuration are constantly changing, which, together with the formation and decay of other strong fields in the atmosphere, leads to the transformation of the wave radiation of a celestial object and the intensity of fluxes of corpuscles – particles of solar gas in a plasma state. The number of spots – relatively cold regions in its photosphere – on the surface of the Sun also changes.

Long-term studies have shown that the activity of a star associated with the appearance of spots has a cyclic structure. Scientists estimate the duration of the cycles in different ways – up to six thousand years, but most often they distinguish three periods: 11-year, 90-year and 300-400-year cycles.

The shortest of them is more pronounced and is associated with changes in the direction of the main component of the magnetic field of the star. The period is characterized by a rather rapid – for about four years – increase in the number of sunspots and its subsequent decrease, which takes about seven years. At the same time, the assessment of the cycle duration of 11 years is an average, in some cases it can last from nine to 14 years.

A new ice age: why it will begin in 2030 88

The 90-year variation is associated with a 25-50 percent periodic decrease in the number of sunspots in 11-year cycles. 300-400-year intervals are completely characterized by the appearance of long, up to several tens of years, intervals when very few sunspots appear on the Sun. The last such period was recorded quite recently – in 2017. And the most famous – the Maunder minimum – lasted from about 1645 to 1715 and coincided in time with the coldest phase of climate cooling – the Little Ice Age.

How the Sun’s cycling affects the Earth

Scientists have long formed certain ideas that the activity of a star affects the climate – both space and terrestrial. When there are many sunspots on the Sun, the probability of reconnection of magnetic lines of different polarities increases. The visible result of this process is flares, characterized by explosive energy release. This burst of radiation, reaching the Earth, causes strong disturbances in its magnetic field, disrupts satellites and increases the likelihood of aurora borealis in low geographic latitudes.

The planet’s ionosphere is also subject to fluctuations in solar activity, which manifests itself in a change in the propagation of short radio waves. It also affects the chemical processes in the Earth’s atmosphere, since it affects the intensity of galactic cosmic ray fluxes.

Moreover, it is now known that a change in the total value of the electromagnetic radiation of the Sun by only one percent can entail a noticeable change in the distribution of temperature and air currents on the Earth. An increase in the flow of particles leads to the fact that warm currents from the south rush with even greater energy to the northern latitudes, and the cold ones, carrying the Arctic air, penetrate deeper to the south.

Should we wait for a new ice age?

Each solar minimum traditionally raises concerns about the possible onset of the next global cooling, akin to that observed at the turn of the 17th and 18th centuries. During the Little Ice Age, global average temperatures dropped by one to two degrees Celsius, snow lay on some of the plains all year round, and Greenland was covered with glaciers. Moreover, the waters of the Thames and Danube rivers were frozen, and the Moscow River was covered with ice every six months.

However, for such cataclysms, a simple decrease in solar activity is not enough; a significant deviation is needed. A sharp decline, according to an international group of scientists, may occur in 2030-2040. This conclusion was made by experts after analyzing solar radiation during the 1982-2002 cycles. The data they obtained made it possible to derive analytical formulas that can be used to predict the behavior of a star in the period from 1200 to 3200.

“If the existing theories about the influence of solar activity on the climate are correct, then this minimum will lead to a significant cooling, similar to that which was during the Maunder minimum. In view of the fact that our future minimum will last three solar cycles – about 30 years, perhaps the decrease in temperature will not be as deep as in the Maunder minimum. But this will need to be studied in more detail, ”the MSU website writes.

Scientists see a lot of other “bells” that foreshadow a sharp decline in solar activity. For example, Matthew Penn, an astronomer at the National Solar Observatory in Tucson, Arizona, told Deutsche Welle that sunspots are not observed at all if the magnetic field of the star falls below 1500 gauss. Moreover, in the penultimate cycle, local fields weakened by about 50 gauss per year.

“If we extrapolate this trend, then by 2021 they will become too weak and will not be able to resist convection. The spots on the Sun will disappear,” he stated.

The director of the National Solar Observatory in Tucson, Frank Hill, even notes that in the new millennium, a malfunction was recorded in the formation of a plasma flow, the movement of which to the equator of the star and becomes the cause of the appearance of spots.

At the same time, the connection between disruptions in solar activity and the beginning of ice ages has not yet been reliably established, and so far experts are very cautious about this.

“My position is this: we do not yet have scientific data that could confirm or deny such a relationship,” Frank Hill emphasized. – Of course, a long minimum of solar activity, in principle, will have some effect on everything – both on space exploration and on the Earth’s climate. But I still want to emphasize: we are predicting changes in the solar cycle, and not at all the onset of a new Little Ice Age.”

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Planet Earth

A strange phenomenon in the Arctic, the cause of which is unknown

A strange phenomenon in the Arctic, the cause of which is unknown 89

In 2018, a plane flying over the Greenland glaciers noticed strange holes in the ice. NASA scientists cannot yet find the reason for their appearance.

The Arctic is a mysterious place, and as the Earth’s climate changes, it changes faster than scientists can record. So, according to NASA, strange holes began to appear in the ice, and so far no one can understand what causes them. 

The photo was taken by John Sonntag, a scientist working for NASA’s IceBridge operation, an ambitious mission to capture as much detail as possible of the North and South Poles in hopes of figuring out what is happening right now in these remote parts of the planet.

Unfortunately, this photo raises more questions than answers, at least for now. But even though scientists from IceBridge do not have an exact answer to what these holes are, they make assumptions. / These holes may be caused by ice melting due to the water warming under the ice, or they may be air pockets caused by whales or seals. However, for the latter variant the holes are somehow too big. 

NASA even asked its readers on the Internet for advice on what it might be. There were many assumptions, but it is not yet possible to say exactly why these holes formed.

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Planet Earth

Rich people from all over the world are buying submarines

Rich people from all over the world are buying submarines 90
Photo: uboatworx / YouTube

The wealthy around the world will spend millions of dollars on private submarines, following Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich, The Times reports.

According to the publication, in the period from 2019 to 2020, it was about the sale of 15 to 25 submarines, however, this number is expected to double in 2021. According to representatives of the three leading submarine manufacturing companies, next year the market will be estimated at 75 million pounds.

Among the first buyers of deep-sea vessels were the owner of Chelsea Football Club Roman Abramovich, the late Microsoft founder Paul Allen and the Emir of Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Khalifa Al Nahyan.

Roy Heijdra of the Dutch company U-Boat Worx noted that wealthy people increasingly want their yachts to be specially equipped for exploration, not just luxury holidays. According to him, ten vessels were sold in 2020 worth up to £ 2.2 million each. Among them was the Nemo model, which is estimated at 875 thousand pounds, has a height of 2.8 meters and can dive to a depth of more than 90 meters with two people on board.

In turn, the executive director of the Florida company Triton, Bruce Jones, said that compared with the previous year sales of submarines this year rose by almost a third, despite the pandemic coronavirus. At the moment, he has about five orders that need to be completed by the beginning of 2021.

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