Denmark’s Saxo Bank has published ten “shocking predictions” for 2024. They concern a series of unlikely and underestimated events, due to which, however, “world markets could be covered with a powerful wave.”
At the end of 2021, the bank predicted a new round of the arms race and the Cold War for 2022. And in last year’s 2023 forecast, the bank said inflation pressures and geopolitical instability would impact the financial market. Against this backdrop, states will adopt more conservative policies, reducing investments in complex financial instruments and investing in traditional assets such as gold, which will rise sharply in price. Yesterday, gold quotes reached a new historical high, reaching $2,148 per troy ounce.
Saxo Bank Investment Director Steen Jacobsen drew attention to the fact that after the global crisis of 2008, stability evaporated completely. Everyone is heading into a dangerous future, in which scenarios for the economy can be very different. So what’s next for the planet?
The end of the road?
The bank expects several global and regional shocks in 2024. US faces the “end of capitalism” as it is traditionally understood.
“The US government will be forced to increase fiscal spending amid the 2024 elections to avoid economic problems and social unrest. Due to rising inflationary pressures and capital withdrawals by foreign investors, demand for US government bonds will be very weak, causing yields to rise. In a desperate attempt to normalize borrowing costs, the US government will exempt income from government bonds from taxes,” the bank said.
According to Saxo Bank, this dramatic move by the Biden administration also marks the end of capitalism in the United States, as capital is transferred from private companies to public coffers. Only the 12 largest companies on the American stock market, which the Danish bank calls the “12 Titans” and which benefit from government financing, are winners. All the rest of the stock market crashes in the US.
“What we will see next is a long period of nationalizations and government interventions in critical sectors that find it difficult to attract capital,” the bank closed its forecast, causing international reactions.
Who will win the US presidential election?
Speaking about the 2024 US elections, Saxo Bank expects that for the first time in the country’s history it will be won by an independent candidate, namely Robert Kennedy Jr.
Moreover, such an outcome will be negative for the country – a non-partisan candidate will create the first coalition government in the history of the United States, and will also take up the fight against monopolies in the field of medicine, defense and the Internet. And this will inevitably lead to a revaluation of the value of giant companies.
“His populist platform is directed against both the proponents of continuing the war in the Democratic Party and the corporate elites. This will resonate with disillusioned Democratic Party supporters and Donald Trump lovers alike. The new political era in the United States will begin with a sharp turn away from plutocracy as voters demand an end to growing inequality, injustice and an end to endless wars,” the forecast says.
What crises await humanity in 2024?
The bank expects two global crises in 2024. One will be caused by generative AI/deepfakes, and the second will be caused by the obesity epidemic.
“Generative AI, touted as a way to boost productivity, will become a national security threat following a brazen deepfake attack against a senior official in a developed country. Governments will hit back at AI by passing new regulations, which will significantly reduce the hype around AI and lead to an outflow of venture capitalists from the industry. Public distrust of AI-generated news will increase, and governments will pass new laws to ensure that news can only be distributed by a small group of organizations,” the forecast notes.
Speaking of obesity, Saxo Bank notes that new anti-obesity drugs based on glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), which has already been dubbed the “satiety hormone,” “are seen as a solution to the global obesity epidemic.
But the ease with which a person can take such a pill will lead people to stop exercising and start consuming more junk food.
If the supply of GLP-1 drugs fails to keep pace with increasing demand, the world will see an increase in obesity and obesity-related health problems, leading to a worldwide decline in productivity levels,” the forecast authors said.
How much will oil cost in 2024?
The oil market, according to Saxo Bank, is waiting for prices to rise to $150 per barrel. Thanks to this, Saudi Arabia will buy the rights to host the Champions League from UEFA and create the World Champions League. Hosting these prestigious and highly profitable competitions will allow Saudi Arabia to further diversify its economy away from oil dependence as part of the Saudi Vision 2030 program launched back in 2016.
