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San Andreas Fault: USGS does not rule out an Earthquake Of Magnitude Greater Than 7 Could Occur Within The Next Week

San Andreas Fault: USGS does not rule out an Earthquake Of Magnitude Greater Than 7 Could Occur Within The Next Week 86

The US Geological Survey (USGS) has identified a swarm of more than 240 earthquakes that have occurred in California, between the San Andreas fault and the Imperial fault, in what could be the prelude of a great earthquake to happen in the next days.

USGS, Situation Prediction for the Westmoreland Swarm Commencing September 30, 2020.

 On September 30, 2020, southeast of the Salton Sea Salt Lake, in the Brawley seismic zone, a swarm of earthquakes began  , the largest of which had a magnitude of 4.9. It happened at 5:31 PM PT on September 30th.

San Andreas Fault: USGS does not rule out an Earthquake Of Magnitude Greater Than 7 Could Occur Within The Next Week 87

 This earthquake and its associated swarm are located in a zone of diffuse seismic activity between the San Andreas Fault in the north and the Imperial Fault in the south:

San Andreas Fault: USGS does not rule out an Earthquake Of Magnitude Greater Than 7 Could Occur Within The Next Week 88

 There have also been swarms in the area in the past – notably the Westmoreland swarm in 1981, which included the M5.8 quake, and the Brawley swarm in 2012, which resulted in the M5.4 quake. Past swarms remained active for up to 20 days with an average duration of about a week. The current swarm occurs about 40 kilometers (25 miles) south of the swarm that occurred near Bombay Beach in August 2020.

In a typical week, the probability of a 7+ earthquake in the immediate vicinity of this swarm is about 1 in 3000. During this swarm of earthquakes, the probability of larger earthquakes in this region is significantly higher than usual – it leaves 1 in 300. The swarm continues to evolve, and we expect to update this forecast with more specific probability information as more data is collected

The following three scenarios describe the possibilities of what could happen from October 1-8.

Only one of these scenarios will happen during the next week. These scenarios include the possibility of earthquakes within the Imperial and San Andreas Fault, as well as beyond.

1. Scenario one (most likely: 90%): earthquakes continue, possibly including earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.4.

The most likely scenario is that the frequency of earthquakes in the swarm will decrease over the next 7 days. Some additional earthquakes of moderate magnitude (M4.5 to 5.4) may occur, which can cause localized damage, especially in weak structures. Earthquakes of lower magnitude (M3.0 +) can be felt by people close to the epicenters.

2. Scenario two (less likely: 10%): a larger earthquake (magnitude 5.5 to 6.9) may occur within the next 7 days.

A less likely scenario is that a slightly stronger earthquake (up to M6.9) could occur. Earthquakes of this size can wreak havoc on an area close to the quakes that have already occurred and will be followed by tremors that increase the number of smaller earthquakes per day. This scenario took place during the previous swarm in the area, in 1981, when a swarm in the region triggered a magnitude 5.8 earthquake.

3. Scenario three (least likely: about 1 in 300): A much larger earthquake (magnitude 7 or higher) could occur over the next 7 days.

A much less likely scenario, compared to the two previous scenarios, is that the ongoing swarm could trigger an earthquake significantly stronger than M4.9 that occurred on September 30th (i.e. M7.0 and higher). Although it is very unlikely, if such an earthquake occurs, it will have a serious impact on nearby communities and will be accompanied by tremors that will increase the number of small earthquakes per day.


Planet Earth

Polar vortex: “wild” winter is coming in the US, Northern Europe and East Asia after the 16th of January

Polar vortex: "wild" winter is coming in the US, Northern Europe and East Asia after the 16th of January 97

In the upper atmosphere above the North Pole, experts saw a rapidly swirling vortex of cold air that could bring severe frosts to the United States, Northern Europe and East Asia. Serious cold snap and snowy weather are expected after January the 16th.

Snowfalls and a cold snap hit South Korea since the start of 2021, hitting historic snow maximums and temperatures. In the country, for the first time since 1964, television and newer communications are sending people cold snap warnings:

The situation is similar in Japan, where a new snow storm hit historic highs:

On January 7, the thermometer In Beijing dropped to -20 degrees Celsius, breaking the 1966 record. In other regions of China, the temperature is also not sugar, and you can only move around in special uniforms:

The cold even reached Taiwan, where the temperature in some areas dropped below freezing point, snow poured down and people realized that rice terraces can be used as a ski jump:

Even more snow went to Spain, where on January 6, 2021, a temperature of -34.1 ° C was recorded – the lowest on record. After that, a snow storm hit the country, which has not been seen for 80 years:

The same thing happens in Canada and in the northern states of the United States:

It seems that after a stratospheric warming, the subpolar vortex began to split:

The vortex itself is a standard phenomenon. However, this time experts were surprised at his movement. It is possible that in the near future it will be divided into two parts. 

Scientists associate the strange behavior with the changed climate in the Arctic, which has become warmer. From September to December, the amount of ice cover decreased significantly.

The polar vortex is a low-pressure region located in the stratosphere and filled with cold air. When the jet stream of air that holds the vortex weakens, the low pressure area moves south. 

As the ice shrinks, more moisture will move inland. It will turn to snow, so snowfalls are expected. Snow, in turn, reflects heat, leading to a cold snap.

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Hospital in Naples was evacuated after a new, huge sinkhole appeared

Hospital in Naples was evacuated after a new, huge sinkhole appeared 98

Eyewitnesses said they heard a loud crash at dawn when a huge hole in the ground formed outside the Ponticelli Ospedale del Mare hospital in eastern Naples.

Early in the morning of January 8, 2021, a sinkhole occurred in the parking lot of a clinic in Naples. The depth of the formed cavity is about 20 meters, the total area of ​​the hole is about 2,000 square meters.

No casualties were found at the scene; firefighters say the sinkhole “affected an area of ​​about 500 square meters” and engulfed several cars parked near the hospital.

As the press writes and as a little can be seen from the videos, rescuers and firefighters were running around the pit together with the governor of the area.  But who should be there in the forefront are Italian geologists, since Naples stands in the very center of the volcanic system known as the Phlegrean Fields.

If the surface collapsed, moreover – the surface reinforced with concrete and reinforced from below with some kind of communications, then we are talking about serious soil deformations caused by the activity of magma.

Italy has been in doubt since the summer of 2020, because swarms were observed there in very atypical places in May, and according to the forecasts of old Italian seismologists, who had witnessed many strong earthquakes, it should have boomed in the August region.

Fortunately, nothing bad happened to Italy and there was no big earthquake. But, since there are swarms, it means that something is being prepared, the magma is gathering strength. 

Following this particular sinkhole event – an obvious sign that a major earthquake in Italy is already very close.

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A new great pandemic cycle has begun (again) in China

A new great pandemic cycle has begun (again) in China 99

In the first months of 2020, the whole world with a certain fright followed the events unfolding in China, where people fell on the streets during the day and astronauts wandered, and in the evening crematoria began to smoke. And now, with the onset of December, the cycle seems to be repeating itself.

Shunyi area in Beijing, where the authorities announced “wartime status” the day before. As you can see in the videos, thousands of people are lined up in the queue for mandatory testing:

Dalian city, where “wartime” is also declared. Neighborhoods are blockaded, people are walled up in entrances, familiar characters of George Lucas roam the streets:

Chinese ‘rescuers’, before performing a combat mission:

Chengdu City:

Daluo Port, Yunnan – tourists came for adventure and they received the ‘time of their life’ after leaving the ramp:

If something happens in Beijing, it does not mean that tomorrow the same will happen everywhere. However, the trend towards such dynamics is observed and, as the practice of the first wave of the pandemic has shown, all countries and people, to one degree or another, have taken into account the ‘Chinese experience’. 

Therefore, one must think that everything will now be in peace, as in spring – a new global round of the fight against the Covid has begun in China, a new great pandemic cycle!

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