A classified Berlin Defense Ministry document obtained by Bild, called “Alliance Defense 2025,” outlines a timetable for an escalation of conflict with Russia that German authorities say will spark World War III.
Secret German Defense Ministry documents reveal a disastrous, step-by-step guide to how Russia will escalate the conflict in Ukraine into an all-out war in just 18 months.
The leaked plans, published by the German newspaper, detail the path to a Third World War, with Putin using Belarus as a staging ground for an invasion, as he did in February 2022 for the war in Ukraine.
The release of the documents comes just days after Sweden’s civil defense minister warned that his country could soon face the prospect of war and urged citizens to join voluntary defense organizations to prepare for a Russian attack.
Germany’s defense leadership is taking the threat from Moscow seriously, with the German armed forces preparing for a hybrid Russian attack on NATO’s eastern flank by the summer of 2025.
Putin’s moves according to the “Alliance Defense 2025” scenario
The classified “Alliance Defense 2025” document details how Russia will deploy another 200,000 troops before launching an offensive against Ukrainian forces in the spring of this year.
By June, amid waning Western support for Ukraine and insufficient armaments , Russia will score significant battlefield successes and make significant progress on the battlefield, according to the leaked documents.
Taking advantage of this success, Putin could in July launch cyber attacks in the Baltics, while at the same time inciting violence in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, claiming that ethnic Russian minorities are being targeted by domestic authorities.
Clashes will occur in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as a result of Russian intervention, and Putin will use this as an excuse to launch a large-scale exercise with 50,000 Russian troops, which will be sent to Belarus and western Russia by September.
A month later, Putin will go a step further and move troops and medium-range missiles into the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, which lies between Poland and Lithuania.
At the same time, Putin and his allies will continue to claim that NATO is preparing to attack Russia and they face a threat to their national security.
Putin’s main objective will be to attack a narrow strip of land known as the Suwalki Gap. Poland and Lithuania fought over control of the area, but today it is part of Poland and is the only land border between mainland Europe and the Baltic states.
Even a small attack in the region – located between Poland, Lithuania and Kaliningrad – could cause huge problems for NATO and possibly develop into a Third World War, the “Daily Mail” points out, reporting the revelations of the German newspaper.
Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltics
Fears of an invasion of the Baltics have grown since the war in Ukraine began, and if Putin were to attempt it, then blocking the Suwalki strip would likely be his first move, as detailed in the leaked classified documents.
Although thousands of NATO troops, including UK troops, are currently deployed in the Baltic, their role is limited to delaying any invasion force until the bulk of NATO forces arrive.
It is even pointed out, according to the secret documents cited by “Bild”, that Putin – taking advantage of the chaos that will result if President Joe Biden is defeated in the presidential elections and the USA is left without a leader for a few weeks – will launch his attack on NATO territory.
Shortly afterwards, during an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, Moscow will accuse the West of preparing to attack Russia.
Under the disaster scenario, NATO would convene an emergency meeting in January 2025, at which Poland and the Baltic states would report a growing Russian threat and plead for help.
Russia will take advantage of the delays and by March 2025 the Kremlin, according to the classified documents, will move even more troops to the Baltic states and Belarus. By the end of the month, Putin would have amassed 70,000 troops.
Two months later, in May 2025, NATO would meet again to discuss the growing Russian threat to its security and decide on “credible deterrence measures”, in an attempt to stop any Russian attack on Suwalki from the direction of Belarus and Kaliningrad.
The “X-day” for NATO and Germany
On an undisclosed date, dubbed “X-Day,” NATO will deploy 300,000 troops on its eastern flank, including 30,000 from Germany, to defend against an imminent Russian attack, according to the leaked documents.
It is not clear from the documents whether the deployment of NATO forces would deter the Russians, as the scenario expires 30 days after “X-Day”.
A spokesman for the German Defense Ministry told Bild that he did not wish to comment on the specific NATO defense scenario, but noted:
“Basically, I can tell you that looking at various scenarios, even if they are extremely unlikely, is part of everyday military activity, especially during training”.
90 thousand NATO members are marching towards the Russian border
The largest exercise in NATO history to contain Russia starts on January 22. They will be called Steadfast Defender 2024. The German agency DPA reports from the sidelines of a meeting of the highest military representatives of the alliance in Brussels that the alliance will mobilize 90 thousand soldiers for them. The maneuvers will take place in Europe.
“Nothing could have been more apparent to the people of the early 20th century than the speed with which war was becoming unacceptable. But they didn’t see it. They didn’t see it until the atomic bombs exploded in their clumsy hands.” The World Set free, H.J. Wales, 1914