In the next fifty years, the world’s population will decrease, according to American scientists. Moreover, by the end of the century, more than half of humanity will be very old. These data contradict previous forecasts.
Overpopulation is near
In the middle of the twentieth century, there were about three billion people on Earth. In 1987 – already five, 1999 – six, in 2011 – seven. Based on these data, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) predicted that by 2100 the world’s population will exceed ten billion, and possibly approach 15 billion if the birth rate increases.
So far, this indicator has only been declining: in the 1950s, there were six children per woman, in 2011 – about two. When forecasting growth, experts based on the fact that humanity as a whole lives better and longer. Australian scientists, after analyzing the statistics of the WHO and the UN, confirmed this scenario.
They noted that the number of people would grow steadily even if most countries introduced a one-family-one-child policy.Even a global military conflict will not prevent the growth, in which as many people will die as in the First and Second World Wars combined. By 2100, the population will still increase to ten billion, the authors of the work emphasized.
According to American researchers, humanity will step over the ten-billion-dollar milestone even earlier – in 2053. True, a rapid leap will happen at the expense of the third world countries, but in developed countries, the population, on the contrary, will significantly decrease. So, Japan will lose 24.7 million citizens, Europe – 12, Russia – 7.9. The population of Africa will double to 2.5 billion.According to researchers from the University of Adelaide, because of this in the near future, people will face a global shortage of water and food. Overpopulation also threatens severe climate change.
The first more cautious forecasts appeared in 2014. An international team of scientists, based on UN data collected before 2012, came to the conclusion that the world’s population by 2100 is unlikely to exceed 12 billion. Most likely, more than 9.9 billion will not work. The main growth will come from the African continent. True, even there there will be more and more elderly people, and fewer and fewer young and able-bodied ones.Now researchers are talking about a possible decline in the population in the next century.
According to the recent work of American specialists, the indicators will continue to grow only until 2064, then, due to the massive availability of higher education and contraception, a decline will begin. At the time of peak, the planet will have 9.7 billion people, but by 2100 – already 8.8, that is, only a billion more than today. At the same time, the share of people over 80 years old will increase almost sixfold.
Such conclusions are the result of examining data not on fertility, but on the cohort fertility of women. That is, about the average number of children born to mothers who have not reached a certain age, in this case fifty years.In total, the work used information about the inhabitants of 195 countries.
Based on this, scientists have calculated: by the end of this century, fewer children will be born in 183 states than are necessary for reproduction.The maximum losses will be incurred by Japan, Italy, Spain, Thailand and South Korea – the population there will decrease by half. In Russia – up to 106 million. Even China will be in trouble : by 2100, only 732 million people will remain in the country. Fertility will also fall in Africa. In Niger today, there are seven children per woman, which will drop to 1.8 by the end of the century.
Attract young and educated
If the restrained forecast comes true, then the problems with the lack of drinking water and food, which are inevitable when the planet is overpopulated, will disappear by themselves. At the same time, a high proportion of the elderly population is likely to require a restructuring of the current political and economic systems.
They will not be able to effectively solve the problems facing a rapidly aging society, the authors of the work warn. Experts call an open migration policy of developed countries one of the possible solutions.
According to the staff of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, the model adopted in Canada and Sweden , attracting a large number of well-educated and able-bodied migrants, can most effectively deal with such a challenge. This option, for example, will solve the problem of the aging of the European population.