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Overpopulation is canceled. Scientists predict a drop in the number of people on Earth

Overpopulation is canceled. Scientists predict a drop in the number of people on Earth 86

In the next fifty years, the world’s population will decrease, according to American scientists. Moreover, by the end of the century, more than half of humanity will be very old. These data contradict previous forecasts. 

Overpopulation is near

In the middle of the twentieth century, there were about three billion people on Earth. In 1987 – already five, 1999 – six, in 2011 – seven. Based on these data, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) predicted that by 2100 the world’s population will exceed ten billion, and possibly approach 15 billion if the birth rate increases. 

So far, this indicator has only been declining: in the 1950s, there were six children per woman, in 2011 – about two. When forecasting growth, experts based on the fact that humanity as a whole lives better and longer. Australian scientists, after analyzing the statistics of the WHO and the UN, confirmed this scenario. 

They noted that the number of people would grow steadily even if most countries introduced a one-family-one-child policy.Even a global military conflict will not prevent the growth, in which as many people will die as in the First and Second World Wars combined. By 2100, the population will still increase to ten billion, the authors of the work emphasized.

People at the busy intersection of Shibuya district in Tokyo
People at the busy intersection of Shibuya district in Tokyo

According to American researchers, humanity will step over the ten-billion-dollar milestone even earlier – in 2053. True, a rapid leap will happen at the expense of the third world countries, but in developed countries, the population, on the contrary, will significantly decrease. So, Japan will lose 24.7 million citizens, Europe – 12, Russia – 7.9. The population of Africa will double to 2.5 billion.According to researchers from the University of Adelaide, because of this in the near future, people will face a global shortage of water and food. Overpopulation also threatens severe climate change.

Downtrend

The first more cautious forecasts appeared in 2014. An international team of scientists, based on UN data collected before 2012, came to the conclusion that the world’s population by 2100 is unlikely to exceed 12 billion. Most likely, more than 9.9 billion will not work. The main growth will come from the African continent. True, even there there will be more and more elderly people, and fewer and fewer young and able-bodied ones.Now researchers are talking about a possible decline in the population in the next century.

 According to the recent work of American specialists, the indicators will continue to grow only until 2064, then, due to the massive availability of higher education and contraception, a decline will begin. At the time of peak, the planet will have 9.7 billion people, but by 2100 – already 8.8, that is, only a billion more than today. At the same time, the share of people over 80 years old will increase almost sixfold.

Mom with a child in the Japanese city of Sendai
Mom with a child in the Japanese city of Sendai

Such conclusions are the result of examining data not on fertility, but on the cohort fertility of women. That is, about the average number of children born to mothers who have not reached a certain age, in this case fifty years.In total, the work used information about the inhabitants of 195 countries. 

Based on this, scientists have calculated: by the end of this century, fewer children will be born in 183 states than are necessary for reproduction.The maximum losses will be incurred by Japan, Italy, Spain, Thailand and South Korea – the population there will decrease by half. In Russia – up to 106 million. Even China will be in trouble : by 2100, only 732 million people will remain in the country. Fertility will also fall in Africa. In Niger today, there are seven children per woman, which will drop to 1.8 by the end of the century.

Record holders for population decline according to PRB forecasts
Record holders for population decline according to PRB forecasts

Attract young and educated

If the restrained forecast comes true, then the problems with the lack of drinking water and food, which are inevitable when the planet is overpopulated, will disappear by themselves. At the same time, a high proportion of the elderly population is likely to require a restructuring of the current political and economic systems. 

They will not be able to effectively solve the problems facing a rapidly aging society, the authors of the work warn. Experts call an open migration policy of developed countries one of the possible solutions. 

According to the staff of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, the model adopted in Canada and Sweden , attracting a large number of well-educated and able-bodied migrants, can most effectively deal with such a challenge. This option, for example, will solve the problem of the aging of the European population.

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Planet Earth

Polar vortex: “wild” winter is coming in the US, Northern Europe and East Asia after the 16th of January

Polar vortex: "wild" winter is coming in the US, Northern Europe and East Asia after the 16th of January 99

In the upper atmosphere above the North Pole, experts saw a rapidly swirling vortex of cold air that could bring severe frosts to the United States, Northern Europe and East Asia. Serious cold snap and snowy weather are expected after January the 16th.

Snowfalls and a cold snap hit South Korea since the start of 2021, hitting historic snow maximums and temperatures. In the country, for the first time since 1964, television and newer communications are sending people cold snap warnings:

https://twitter.com/sonyeoljin/status/1346841272347082752?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

The situation is similar in Japan, where a new snow storm hit historic highs:

On January 7, the thermometer In Beijing dropped to -20 degrees Celsius, breaking the 1966 record. In other regions of China, the temperature is also not sugar, and you can only move around in special uniforms:

The cold even reached Taiwan, where the temperature in some areas dropped below freezing point, snow poured down and people realized that rice terraces can be used as a ski jump:

Even more snow went to Spain, where on January 6, 2021, a temperature of -34.1 ° C was recorded – the lowest on record. After that, a snow storm hit the country, which has not been seen for 80 years:

https://youtu.be/pHU533Krs5M

The same thing happens in Canada and in the northern states of the United States:

It seems that after a stratospheric warming, the subpolar vortex began to split:

The vortex itself is a standard phenomenon. However, this time experts were surprised at his movement. It is possible that in the near future it will be divided into two parts. 

Scientists associate the strange behavior with the changed climate in the Arctic, which has become warmer. From September to December, the amount of ice cover decreased significantly.

The polar vortex is a low-pressure region located in the stratosphere and filled with cold air. When the jet stream of air that holds the vortex weakens, the low pressure area moves south. 

As the ice shrinks, more moisture will move inland. It will turn to snow, so snowfalls are expected. Snow, in turn, reflects heat, leading to a cold snap.

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Planet Earth

Hospital in Naples was evacuated after a new, huge sinkhole appeared

Hospital in Naples was evacuated after a new, huge sinkhole appeared 100

Eyewitnesses said they heard a loud crash at dawn when a huge hole in the ground formed outside the Ponticelli Ospedale del Mare hospital in eastern Naples.

Early in the morning of January 8, 2021, a sinkhole occurred in the parking lot of a clinic in Naples. The depth of the formed cavity is about 20 meters, the total area of ​​the hole is about 2,000 square meters.

No casualties were found at the scene; firefighters say the sinkhole “affected an area of ​​about 500 square meters” and engulfed several cars parked near the hospital.

As the press writes and as a little can be seen from the videos, rescuers and firefighters were running around the pit together with the governor of the area.  But who should be there in the forefront are Italian geologists, since Naples stands in the very center of the volcanic system known as the Phlegrean Fields.

If the surface collapsed, moreover – the surface reinforced with concrete and reinforced from below with some kind of communications, then we are talking about serious soil deformations caused by the activity of magma.

Italy has been in doubt since the summer of 2020, because swarms were observed there in very atypical places in May, and according to the forecasts of old Italian seismologists, who had witnessed many strong earthquakes, it should have boomed in the August region.

Fortunately, nothing bad happened to Italy and there was no big earthquake. But, since there are swarms, it means that something is being prepared, the magma is gathering strength. 

Following this particular sinkhole event – an obvious sign that a major earthquake in Italy is already very close.

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Planet Earth

A new great pandemic cycle has begun (again) in China

A new great pandemic cycle has begun (again) in China 101

In the first months of 2020, the whole world with a certain fright followed the events unfolding in China, where people fell on the streets during the day and astronauts wandered, and in the evening crematoria began to smoke. And now, with the onset of December, the cycle seems to be repeating itself.

Shunyi area in Beijing, where the authorities announced “wartime status” the day before. As you can see in the videos, thousands of people are lined up in the queue for mandatory testing:

Dalian city, where “wartime” is also declared. Neighborhoods are blockaded, people are walled up in entrances, familiar characters of George Lucas roam the streets:

https://twitter.com/UndergroundSilk/status/1341741036297723905?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Chinese ‘rescuers’, before performing a combat mission:

Chengdu City:

Daluo Port, Yunnan – tourists came for adventure and they received the ‘time of their life’ after leaving the ramp:

If something happens in Beijing, it does not mean that tomorrow the same will happen everywhere. However, the trend towards such dynamics is observed and, as the practice of the first wave of the pandemic has shown, all countries and people, to one degree or another, have taken into account the ‘Chinese experience’. 

Therefore, one must think that everything will now be in peace, as in spring – a new global round of the fight against the Covid has begun in China, a new great pandemic cycle!

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