This forecast was made by an American scientist , having analyzed the situation with the spread of COVID-19.
World Health Organization (WHO) adviser Ira Longini, co-director of the Center for Infectious Disease Statistics at the University of Florida, has warned the public about the risk of global coronavirus infection. The expert, Bloomberg informs, does not rule out the possibility that COVID-19 will affect two-thirds of humanity.
Currently, the official number of infected is estimated at about 60,000 people, but, according to the scientist, this number will grow at a high speed. The main reasons for this according to the WHO adviser; firstly, on average, every infected person infects another 2–3 people, secondly, a situation in which the infection does not manifest itself immediately, and thirdly, the lack of reliable express test methods for COVID-19. According to Ira Longini, even if the spread of coronavirus is halved compared to the current situation, a third of the world’s population will be infected.
“If nothing changes with the mechanism of transmission, then no quarantines and isolation of sick people will help stop the spread of COVID-19. Those measures that are being taken now can only slow down, but not stop the epidemic, ”the scientist said.
Recall that today, in addition to China, coronavirus has been detected in 24 countries of the world. In China, where COVID-19 appeared, about 64,000 infections were confirmed, 1,380 people died and about 7,000 were able to recover.