The beginning of the third world war is getting closer, and it may break out not at Ukraine, as many believe, but in the Middle East.
The situation in the Middle East has become red-hot after the Israeli army attacked the Iranian Consulate General in Syria. As a result, seven officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including two generals, were killed. One of those killed was the leader of IRGC forces in Syria and Lebanon.
A strike on a foreign diplomatic mission may well be perceived as a pretext for declaring war. Consulates and embassies are considered the territory of the country they represent, so it can be said that Israel has shelled Iran. This very fact, as well as the death of many high-ranking military officers, cannot be ignored.
The attack on the Iranian consulate was carried out in violation of the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. This is Israel’s direct declaration of war on Iran. Therefore, Tehran now has a free hand, there are no obstacles. At the same time, the target may not only be Israel, but its diplomatic corps around the world.
Has Iran launched several test missiles at Israel?
On the night of April 5, 2024, several videos made in the temporarily occupied Shiite “province” of Khuzestan appeared on the network. The video shows some objects that can be both launching/falling rockets.
It is assumed that the Iranians have finally decided to strike Israel, which has been shouted about for the past 48 hours.
At the moment, there is no confirmation from either side: Israel does not report that anything flew to them, and Iran is tight lipped on the subject that it launched something. However, a video briefly circulated online, which claimed that this was an explosion in Tel Aviv on the night of April 5.
There are also several videos from Tel Aviv where missiles can be seen in the sky – or air defense missiles, or warhead arrivals:
Later on, as suspected, the video of the Tel Aviv bombings turned out to be Ukrainian missiles targeting Russian ships in Sevastopol on 23 March:
However, there is a nuance:
At the moment, these videos are broadcast either by openly anti-Israeli accounts, or by those who simply saw the news on the Internet and ran to post, so we may be talking about some kind of special operation in the information space. But we can say for sure that Israel is moving electronic warfare to its nuclear facilities:
What is certain is that Israel is moving its ballistic missiles for the first time in a very long time:
Warnings and panic
The CIA has warned Israel that Iran is preparing a massive retaliatory strike that will use ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones. Israel responded by saying that it was ready to take a strike and give a tangible response.
Tel Aviv announced the mobilization of operators of the Iron Dome air defense system. Bomb shelters have been opened across the country. All air defense systems have been brought to a state of full readiness. In Jerusalem, the evacuation of shrines, religious books and artifacts has begun and all soldiers and officers were called back from leave and dismissal.
Nervousness, if not panic, is also observed among ordinary citizens of Israel. People are storming shops, buying up drinking water, canned food and basic necessities, fearing that a strike on the Iranian consulate could result in a real war with all the ensuing consequences.
The Central Bank of Israel has advised banks on what they should do if people rush to withdraw all their savings. People are afraid that during emergencies communication may be disrupted or banking services will fail, so when there is a great danger, the first thing they do is to run to withdraw money so as not to be left without cash.
Will there be a war?
Another indirect sign of preparations for military operations was the problems with the operation of electronics, which are being tested by aircraft and ships in the Persian Gulf. All of this may indicate that Israel and NATO countries have turned on powerful jammers in the region that cover the zone from Jordan to central Israel and from Lebanon to Turkey. Apparently, these are precautionary measures in case Iran decides to act not directly, but through its proxies – Hezbollah and the Iraqi Islamic resistance.
Iran often acts not directly, but through controlled armed groups. However, in the event of a strike on the consulate in Damascus, it may well enter the war.
In favor of this version is the fact that both opponents are sufficiently warmed up and ready for an open confrontation. For Israel, it is a way to end its long-time mortal enemy. The Israelis are clearly counting on the United States, to get involved in the conflict and provide reliable support, because for the United States, the Islamic Republic is also one of the main geopolitical opponents.
This is the right moment to put an end to its strategic enemy once and for all, drawing the United States into the conflict as well. And all this against the backdrop of the failed operation in Gaza and dwindling support among the American elites.
Iran, in turn, is counting on the support of Russia and China. That is, in fact, we are talking about a clash of two blocs – the West and the East, and this is the third world war. In addition, Israel, like Iran, has nuclear weapons, which raises the stakes even more.
A world war could break out at any moment now in the Middle East and Iran would become one of its participants. Soon after the politician’s death, the region really began to seethe. First came the war between Israel and Palestine. Then the Houthis began to destroy Western ships in the Red Sea. And now the IDF has struck at the Iranian consulate.
Iran cannot fail to respond, because that would be a loss of face for it. Recall that when an American drone killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad in 2020, Tehran shelled a US military base in Iraq. Most likely, Iran will use its proxies this time, but the risk of a direct clash is still high.
According to sources of the The New York Times, the Iranian leadership is completely shocked by the killing of the IRGC generals. The attack on the consulate in Damascus sparked fury in Tehran.
It is worth noting that this is not the first time that Israel has eliminated important Iranian figures. Mossad is believed to be behind the assassination of Iranian nuclear physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who worked on a nuclear warhead for ballistic missiles. The scientist was shot in Tehran with a remote-controlled automatic machine gun mounted in the back of a pickup truck parked in the right place. After the murder, intelligence agents blew up a pickup truck to cover their tracks. But it was a covert operation, in which Israel’s involvement has not yet been proven. And now we are talking about an open military attack.
The World’s Reaction
Almost all members of the Security Council also condemned the attack on the diplomatic institution, including the leadership of an international organization. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said that all diplomatic missions and their personnel have immunity in accordance with international law.
Paris’ permanent representative to the UN, Nicolas de Rivière, said the strikes on Damascus were in response to Hamas attacks. He also blamed Iran for the escalation in the Middle East.
Britain’s permanent representative to the UN, James Kariuki, acknowledged the importance of respecting the inviolability of diplomatic institutions, but also noted “Iran’s role in destabilizing the region.”
U.S. Ambassador Robert Wood reacted in approximately the same manner. He said that any attack on diplomatic facilities “is of concern to the United States.” But at the same time, he recalled the death of the US military in the region. In this case, the comparison between the military base and the consulate general is not entirely correct, but for some reason the US authorities do not see the difference here.