The asteroid Apophis, comparable in size to a cruise ship, is set to approach Earth on April 13, 2029. Its potentially hazardous trajectory has been monitored for two decades.
Initially, Apophis caused significant alarm, but astronomers reassured the public by calculating its orbit, projecting it to pass within 32,000 kilometers of Earth’s center. However, astronomer Paul Wiegert has raised concerns that a critical oversight was made: the potential for Apophis to be altered by collisions with smaller asteroids and space debris was not considered.
The asteroid Apophis, comparable in size to the Eiffel Tower, could impact Earth with a force equivalent to multiple nuclear bombs. However, if it misses, it may orbit back, drawn by Earth’s gravitational pull. In such a case, it would likely collide with Earth seven years following its initial approach.
Paul Wiegert’s study, published in The Planetary Science Journal, highlights three critical aspects concerning the trajectory of asteroid Apophis.
The first point is that due to the Sun’s position, astronomers are unable to track the object’s trajectory from 2021 to 2027. Consequently, when humanity is able to observe Apophis, there will be a very limited time frame to make a decision.
The second issue is that prior calculations of the asteroid’s trajectory failed to consider changes resulting from collisions with smaller space objects, including debris along Apophis’s path. Paul Wiegert has determined that an asteroid, expected to pass 32 thousand kilometers from Earth, requires only a minimal impulse to alter its course and potentially collide with our planet.
This assessment is based on data from NASA’s mission on September 27, 2022, which involved sending a probe to bombard the asteroid Dimorphos to ascertain if a minor impact could significantly alter a celestial body’s orbit. The findings confirmed this possibility. However, these findings had not been applied to Apophis until Paul Wiegert’s recent calculations.
The third issue is that even if the asteroid doesn’t collide with Earth, our planet’s gravitational field will still influence it. Consequently, the asteroid won’t be propelled into outer space; instead, it will be redirected for another approach, which is almost certain to result in an impact with Earth in April 2036.
Statistics indicate that an asteroid of this size strikes Earth approximately once every 80,000 years. While this is significantly smaller than the asteroid that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs, which was about 10 km in diameter, the impact would nonetheless be catastrophic.
If it strikes the city, the resulting crater would be approximately a kilometer wide, and the energy released would be equivalent to that of multiple strategic nuclear warheads. Should it impact the ocean, a catastrophic tsunami would ensue, devastating coastal areas.
Even disturbances in the desert can be hazardous: atmospheric dust, alterations in the ionosphere, and disruptions to the planet’s electromagnetic field can cause significant issues for agriculture, navigation, and the functioning of electrical devices.
It seems that the scenario from the movie “Armageddon,” starring Bruce Willis and Ben Affleck, is becoming a reality. In the film, a nuclear charge is placed on an asteroid hurtling towards Earth to alter its course through an explosion.
