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Beware of the unexpected: Aliens and disruption of the US elections are Politico’s “black swans” of 2024

Beware of the unexpected: Aliens and disruption of the US elections are Politico's “black swans” of 2024 1

2024 could suddenly surprise with a digital apocalypse, the rise of African influence, disruption of the US elections and a “Chinese surprise,” according to experts interviewed by the Politico newspaper.

Among the “unpredictable, but very real” predictions is the discovery of alien intelligence.

“This is not as speculative a scenario as you might think. The possibility of two-way communication with another civilization during our lifetime is limited to a distance of approximately 30 light years. But we already know about a dozen habitable exoplanets within 30 light-years of Earth, and we are aware of what is happening on only a few percent of them,” wrote Galileo project leader and founding director of the Black Hole Initiative at Harvard University Avi Loeb.

Experts named other “black swans”:

A “black swan” is an event that initially seems rare and difficult to predict, but after the fact often turns out to be quite logical based on the current situation.

The theory was first voiced by the American mathematician and economist Nassim Taleb in 2004 in his book Fooled by Randomness, and in 2007 he introduced the term itself in the book Black Swan. Under the sign of unpredictability.” 

Disruption of US elections. “What if the most powerful country in the world fails to hold free and fair elections?” asked Ian Bremmer, head of political risk consulting firm Eurasia Group.

Supporters of President Joe Biden are concerned about the threat to democracy, their opponents fear a prison sentence for former President Donald Trump, and US opponents are eager to see chaos at home, raising the risks of a multifaceted effort to overturn the election.

Chinese surprise. The DPP candidate Lai Ching-te wins the elections in Taiwan, he declares the island’s independence, after which China begins a military operation. The United States is using military force to defend Taiwan and Biden’s confident actions are adding to his votes in the election, predicts Matthew Burrows, program director at the Stimson Center for Strategic Forecasting.

He believes that it is possible that China suffers a financial collapse due to problems in the economy.

Digital apocalypse and much more. “In 2020, no one expected a global pandemic, but in 2024 we could be hit by a global digital virus. What if computers and satellites stop working? At least for a few days? What if a virus attacked the global banking system, evaporating trillions of dollars of wealth? – Bulwark newspaper editor-in-chief Charlie Sykes asks.“

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In his opinion, even if computers and satellites stop working for a few days, the losses to the global economy will reach trillions of dollars.

He warned of the danger of “the collapse of an abandoned Ukraine and the subsequent invasion of Taiwan by an emboldened China,” levels of unrest similar to 1968 and a convicted criminal as US president.

Revolution in Russia. Politico Magazine writer and Washington Monthly political editor Bill Sher admits that “the sudden end of Putin’s power will change many political equations around the world.”

However, he notes that analysts consider Russia resistant to coups due to the system of division of military power between different bodies.

Director and Deputy Director of the CIA in 2000–2004, John McLaughlin writes about the high level of support for Putin and believes that the “black swan” in Russia could be the dissatisfaction of mothers of soldiers with the ongoing fighting in Ukraine, which could change Moscow’s position.

Attack on a US presidential candidate. The applicant could repeat the fate of John Kennedy, get sick or injured, says analyst Jeff Greenfield.

“Every time Joe Biden walks on stage or gets off a plane, his supporters hold their breath,” he points out.

Another threat to the US elections could be a global conflict, believes Politico author Joshua Seitz. It is difficult to predict how this will affect the election: Biden could gain an advantage by “rallying around the flag,” or Trump could skillfully use criticism of “saber rattling,” the analyst said.

Africa is positioned as a global player. In this scenario, U.S. influence on the world is significantly weakened, leading to a sudden reshuffling of global governance, said Reynaldo Anderson, an assistant professor of African and African American studies at Temple University. According to his calculations, a state or a coalition of states can achieve a reshuffling of alliances and global economic relations.

Prior to this, Saxo Bank published “shocking predictions” for 2024. As experts noted, in 2024 it will finally become clear that the world was already heading into a dangerous, uncertain future. These shocking predictions – if they actually happened – would affect the fate of the whole world.

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