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All climate change models show that disaster is approaching rapidly. But why?

There are dozens of climate models, according to which warming due to climate change on our planet will lead to an increase in temperature by 3 ° C. 

It is important to understand that this is a catastrophic forecast. At first glance, a slight increase in temperature will lead to flooded cities, disruptions in agriculture and deadly heat. At the same time, in almost all complex climate models, gloomy stability is observed, which lasted until the last year. So, slowly and imperceptibly, some models began to show a significant increase in temperature. Scientists who honed these systems used the same assumptions about greenhouse gas emissions as before, but this time the results were much worse. Some models predict a temperature increase of at least 5 ° C.

Scenario of impending disaster

According to Bloomberg, researchers have begun collecting data, but this process will take several months at best. The reason for concern is that these same models have successfully predicted climate change for half a century. The results obtained are still consistent with all the main scientific, political and private climate goals and discussions, including the sixth encyclopedic assessment of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which will be published in 2021. So far, the situation is such that if humanity does not take any action on climate change, we will have less time to avoid the worst consequences.

Nevertheless, some researchers are convinced that there is a high probability that the models show incorrect results or they were incorrectly decrypted. Uncertainty about how to read models highlights one of the central issues of climate change. On the one hand, politicians and members of the public are turning to scientists to learn how to prevent devastating droughts, heatwaves and warm winters. However, there is no single answer to the question of how soon these or those changes will occur. Using climate models, researchers test ideas about the effects of melting ice cover, soil and cloud moisture, and other factors. There are currently over a hundred models used to predict the relationship between carbon dioxide and warming,



A gap created by running water at the edge of the Aletsch Glacier, near Bettmeralp, Switzerland

Creating climate models that perform extremely complex calculations takes a huge amount of time. It is necessary to take into account a large amount of data that interact with each other and to make corrections in the early stages for troubleshooting. All existing climate models do not take into account permafrost thawing. And this, as you can guess, is a big problem. Last year, models that are used at major climatological institutes in the world began to show unusual data. The cause of what is happening remains unknown.

Hot models

In general, up to one fifth of the new results published last year showed an abnormally high sensitivity to climate. However, in order to say with certainty whether all these gloomy forecasts are valid, more research is needed.



Climate models predict a very hot future

If consensus is still reached on new higher scores, this could have a real impact on the actions of governments and enterprises around the world. Recall that the 2015 Paris Agreement requires countries to reduce emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere so that the global temperature does not rise above 1.5 ° C. But the schedule by which the world agreed to act in the name of this goal was partly made up of the same climate models that currently give higher ratings. And this may mean that the goal stipulated by the Paris Agreement is already unattainable.

Today, the challenge facing researchers is to find out what results such changes in climate models can lead to. In the next, researchers who are working on creating climate models and authors of UN reports on climate change will try to get a general picture that we will not know about before 2021.

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Planet Earth

A bright fireball exploded over Armenia

Fireball over the sky of Armenia / Zohrap Yeganyan

Yesterday, a very bright fireball exploded over Armenia. This was announced by the head of the meteorological forecast department of the Hydrometeorological Center Gagik Surenyan on Facebook. The magnitude (brilliance) of a celestial body, which entered the Earth’s atmosphere with great speed, is at least 12.

Photo Source: Getty Image

On the evening of May 27, local residents saw a luminous ball flying from the sky, when it collided with the ground, an outbreak occurred.

Users of social networks began to share their guesses, but they officially gave a comment at the  Hydrometeorological Center  only the next day:

“Yesterday’s fall of a large meteorite in the Hrazdan  -Hankavan section  ,” Gagik Surenyan wrote, head of the meteorological forecast department of the Hydrometeorological Center and posted a video showing the meteorite.

Those who also saw the meteorite offered to go to the site of the fall of the celestial body and “collect the pieces”, others reproached the authorities and scientists for silence, when everyone discussed the event, no one began to confirm to people that the luminous ball was a meteorite.

“A meteorite is the final act of this nightmare year,” users of social networks wrote a comment on the video, with sad irony.

The camera was installed in the vicinity of Hrazdan and was directed towards the village of Hankavan.

“The meteorite, judging by the records studied, was very large and entered at great speed the atmosphere of the planet, where it burned at an altitude of several kilometers. The risk that parts of this fireball could reach Earth is small, and the likelihood that they can be somehow found tends to zero, including the woodland and the fact that, when burned, meteors and fireballs crumble, as a rule, for particles up to several millimeters in size,” astrophysicist R. Martirosyan said.

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Planet Earth

Powerful sprites over Kansas were visible to the naked eye

Have you ever seen sprites? They say that this is impossible. Strange and fleeting forms of Red Lightning materialize over thunderclouds, usually disappearing in less time than it takes to blink. However, storm hunter Michael Havan had no problems seeing them on May 23rd.

“The extremely bright jellyfish sprites were easily visible to the naked eye at dusk!” Says Gavin. “This is one of the brightest shots I’ve captured with my modified Canon T3i.”

Gavin saw this sight from Northwest Kansas. “Clear skies provided fantastic views of the MCS (mesoscale convective system) moving through Nebraska almost 100 miles from us,” he says. “I was not the only one who saw them.” There have been reports that people also saw sprites from Interstate 70. “

The storm lasted so long that Gavin managed to attach an 85mm lens to his camera for several close-up shots. “Because I had an image of the same area without a sprite from a few seconds earlier, I was able to subtract the sky (stars, air glow, etc.) to take a photo of the structure of the sprite without any distractions.

A solar minimum can stimulate sprites. During the low phase of the solar cycle — now occurring — cosmic rays from deep space penetrate the inner solar system relatively unhindered due to the weakening of the Sun’s magnetic field. 

Some models claim that cosmic rays help sprites get started by creating conductive paths in the atmosphere.

By the way:

Today, May 25, 2020, the level of cosmic rays crashing onto the Earth, reached its maximum levels, increasing today by 10.4% of average values.

Cosmic rays 

The magnetic field of the sun is weak, which allows additional cosmic rays to penetrate the solar system. Neutron counts from the Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory of the University of Oulu show that cosmic rays reaching Earth in 2020 are close to the peak of the space age.

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Planet Earth

A surge in volcanic activity threatens the Earth with a new Ice Age

Over the past few days, we have witnessed a turbulent global volcanic surge in activity. He sends us all signs that the Great Solar Minimum is approaching.

The Japanese meteorological satellite HIMAWARI-8 recorded two powerful eruptions on May 16, both of which occurred in Indonesia.

The first took place in IBU – a relatively new volcano with only 3 noticeable eruptions; in 1911, 1998 and 2008 – and was confirmed by Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC), which warned that the ash plume rises to about 13.7 km.

The second high-level eruption occurred just a few hours later on Semera – a very active volcano with an eruptive history; the first happened in 1818, the most recent in 2014.

As with IBU, the Semeru eruption was confirmed by both HIMAWARI-8 and VAAC Darwin, the latter confirming the generation of a “dark ash plume that reached a height of 14 km.

In addition, active lava flows remain active on the southeastern flank of Semeru, currently about 1.5 km long (as of the morning of May 18).

Direct cooling effect

These high-level eruptions are notable for the fact that solid particles are thrown to a height of over 10 km – and into the stratosphere – are often delayed, where they have a direct cooling effect on the planet.

Volcanic eruptions are one of the key factors pushing the Earth toward its next round of global cooling, with their worldwide surge associated with low solar activity, coronal holes, a diminishing magnetosphere and the influx of cosmic rays penetrating silica-rich magma.

In addition to Indonesia, Icelandic volcanoes have intensified, and it is this high-mountain volcanic region of the world that is believed to be home to the next “big eruption” – one that will plunge the whole world into the new Ice Age almost instantly.

Katla is such a volcano here and it shows signs of activity, since a significant gas output has been recorded over the past few days. 

In addition, seismic activity under a large ice volcano has also increased, and this activity is probably caused by injections of new magma entering the chamber.

Icelandic authorities are aware of the danger posed by the next Katla eruption, and a delegation of volcanologists regularly meets with the Icelandic parliament to discuss how to respond in the event of an eruption, the likelihood of which is simply a matter of when, not if.

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