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All climate change models show that disaster is approaching rapidly. But why?

All climate change models show that disaster is approaching rapidly. But why? 90

There are dozens of climate models, according to which warming due to climate change on our planet will lead to an increase in temperature by 3 ° C. 

It is important to understand that this is a catastrophic forecast. At first glance, a slight increase in temperature will lead to flooded cities, disruptions in agriculture and deadly heat. At the same time, in almost all complex climate models, gloomy stability is observed, which lasted until the last year. So, slowly and imperceptibly, some models began to show a significant increase in temperature. Scientists who honed these systems used the same assumptions about greenhouse gas emissions as before, but this time the results were much worse. Some models predict a temperature increase of at least 5 ° C.

Scenario of impending disaster

According to Bloomberg, researchers have begun collecting data, but this process will take several months at best. The reason for concern is that these same models have successfully predicted climate change for half a century. The results obtained are still consistent with all the main scientific, political and private climate goals and discussions, including the sixth encyclopedic assessment of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which will be published in 2021. So far, the situation is such that if humanity does not take any action on climate change, we will have less time to avoid the worst consequences.

Nevertheless, some researchers are convinced that there is a high probability that the models show incorrect results or they were incorrectly decrypted. Uncertainty about how to read models highlights one of the central issues of climate change. On the one hand, politicians and members of the public are turning to scientists to learn how to prevent devastating droughts, heatwaves and warm winters. However, there is no single answer to the question of how soon these or those changes will occur. Using climate models, researchers test ideas about the effects of melting ice cover, soil and cloud moisture, and other factors. There are currently over a hundred models used to predict the relationship between carbon dioxide and warming,

All climate change models show that disaster is approaching rapidly. But why? 91


A gap created by running water at the edge of the Aletsch Glacier, near Bettmeralp, Switzerland

Creating climate models that perform extremely complex calculations takes a huge amount of time. It is necessary to take into account a large amount of data that interact with each other and to make corrections in the early stages for troubleshooting. All existing climate models do not take into account permafrost thawing. And this, as you can guess, is a big problem. Last year, models that are used at major climatological institutes in the world began to show unusual data. The cause of what is happening remains unknown.

Hot models

In general, up to one fifth of the new results published last year showed an abnormally high sensitivity to climate. However, in order to say with certainty whether all these gloomy forecasts are valid, more research is needed.

All climate change models show that disaster is approaching rapidly. But why? 92


Climate models predict a very hot future

If consensus is still reached on new higher scores, this could have a real impact on the actions of governments and enterprises around the world. Recall that the 2015 Paris Agreement requires countries to reduce emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere so that the global temperature does not rise above 1.5 ° C. But the schedule by which the world agreed to act in the name of this goal was partly made up of the same climate models that currently give higher ratings. And this may mean that the goal stipulated by the Paris Agreement is already unattainable.

Today, the challenge facing researchers is to find out what results such changes in climate models can lead to. In the next, researchers who are working on creating climate models and authors of UN reports on climate change will try to get a general picture that we will not know about before 2021.

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Planet Earth

Polar vortex: “wild” winter is coming in the US, Northern Europe and East Asia after the 16th of January

Polar vortex: "wild" winter is coming in the US, Northern Europe and East Asia after the 16th of January 105

In the upper atmosphere above the North Pole, experts saw a rapidly swirling vortex of cold air that could bring severe frosts to the United States, Northern Europe and East Asia. Serious cold snap and snowy weather are expected after January the 16th.

Snowfalls and a cold snap hit South Korea since the start of 2021, hitting historic snow maximums and temperatures. In the country, for the first time since 1964, television and newer communications are sending people cold snap warnings:

The situation is similar in Japan, where a new snow storm hit historic highs:

On January 7, the thermometer In Beijing dropped to -20 degrees Celsius, breaking the 1966 record. In other regions of China, the temperature is also not sugar, and you can only move around in special uniforms:

The cold even reached Taiwan, where the temperature in some areas dropped below freezing point, snow poured down and people realized that rice terraces can be used as a ski jump:

Even more snow went to Spain, where on January 6, 2021, a temperature of -34.1 ° C was recorded – the lowest on record. After that, a snow storm hit the country, which has not been seen for 80 years:

The same thing happens in Canada and in the northern states of the United States:

It seems that after a stratospheric warming, the subpolar vortex began to split:

The vortex itself is a standard phenomenon. However, this time experts were surprised at his movement. It is possible that in the near future it will be divided into two parts. 

Scientists associate the strange behavior with the changed climate in the Arctic, which has become warmer. From September to December, the amount of ice cover decreased significantly.

The polar vortex is a low-pressure region located in the stratosphere and filled with cold air. When the jet stream of air that holds the vortex weakens, the low pressure area moves south. 

As the ice shrinks, more moisture will move inland. It will turn to snow, so snowfalls are expected. Snow, in turn, reflects heat, leading to a cold snap.

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Planet Earth

Hospital in Naples was evacuated after a new, huge sinkhole appeared

Hospital in Naples was evacuated after a new, huge sinkhole appeared 106

Eyewitnesses said they heard a loud crash at dawn when a huge hole in the ground formed outside the Ponticelli Ospedale del Mare hospital in eastern Naples.

Early in the morning of January 8, 2021, a sinkhole occurred in the parking lot of a clinic in Naples. The depth of the formed cavity is about 20 meters, the total area of ​​the hole is about 2,000 square meters.

No casualties were found at the scene; firefighters say the sinkhole “affected an area of ​​about 500 square meters” and engulfed several cars parked near the hospital.

As the press writes and as a little can be seen from the videos, rescuers and firefighters were running around the pit together with the governor of the area.  But who should be there in the forefront are Italian geologists, since Naples stands in the very center of the volcanic system known as the Phlegrean Fields.

If the surface collapsed, moreover – the surface reinforced with concrete and reinforced from below with some kind of communications, then we are talking about serious soil deformations caused by the activity of magma.

Italy has been in doubt since the summer of 2020, because swarms were observed there in very atypical places in May, and according to the forecasts of old Italian seismologists, who had witnessed many strong earthquakes, it should have boomed in the August region.

Fortunately, nothing bad happened to Italy and there was no big earthquake. But, since there are swarms, it means that something is being prepared, the magma is gathering strength. 

Following this particular sinkhole event – an obvious sign that a major earthquake in Italy is already very close.

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Planet Earth

A new great pandemic cycle has begun (again) in China

A new great pandemic cycle has begun (again) in China 107

In the first months of 2020, the whole world with a certain fright followed the events unfolding in China, where people fell on the streets during the day and astronauts wandered, and in the evening crematoria began to smoke. And now, with the onset of December, the cycle seems to be repeating itself.

Shunyi area in Beijing, where the authorities announced “wartime status” the day before. As you can see in the videos, thousands of people are lined up in the queue for mandatory testing:

Dalian city, where “wartime” is also declared. Neighborhoods are blockaded, people are walled up in entrances, familiar characters of George Lucas roam the streets:

https://twitter.com/UndergroundSilk/status/1341741036297723905?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Chinese ‘rescuers’, before performing a combat mission:

Chengdu City:

Daluo Port, Yunnan – tourists came for adventure and they received the ‘time of their life’ after leaving the ramp:

If something happens in Beijing, it does not mean that tomorrow the same will happen everywhere. However, the trend towards such dynamics is observed and, as the practice of the first wave of the pandemic has shown, all countries and people, to one degree or another, have taken into account the ‘Chinese experience’. 

Therefore, one must think that everything will now be in peace, as in spring – a new global round of the fight against the Covid has begun in China, a new great pandemic cycle!

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